Identify
Explore
Discover
Discuss
Summarise
Describe
Last, format your objectives into a numbered list. This is because when you write your thesis or dissertation, you will at times need to make reference to a specific research objective; structuring your research objectives in a numbered list will provide a clear way of doing this.
To bring all this together, let’s compare the first research objective in the previous example with the above guidance:
Research Objective:
1. Develop finite element models using explicit dynamics to mimic mallet blows during cup/shell insertion, initially using simplified experimentally validated foam models to represent the acetabulum.
Checking Against Recommended Approach:
Q: Is it specific? A: Yes, it is clear what the student intends to do (produce a finite element model), why they intend to do it (mimic cup/shell blows) and their parameters have been well-defined ( using simplified experimentally validated foam models to represent the acetabulum ).
Q: Is it measurable? A: Yes, it is clear that the research objective will be achieved once the finite element model is complete.
Q: Is it achievable? A: Yes, provided the student has access to a computer lab, modelling software and laboratory data.
Q: Is it relevant? A: Yes, mimicking impacts to a cup/shell is fundamental to the overall aim of understanding how they deform when impacted upon.
Q: Is it timebound? A: Yes, it is possible to create a limited-scope finite element model in a relatively short time, especially if you already have experience in modelling.
Q: Does it start with a verb? A: Yes, it starts with ‘develop’, which makes the intent of the objective immediately clear.
Q: Is it a numbered list? A: Yes, it is the first research objective in a list of eight.
1. making your research aim too broad.
Having a research aim too broad becomes very difficult to achieve. Normally, this occurs when a student develops their research aim before they have a good understanding of what they want to research. Remember that at the end of your project and during your viva defence , you will have to prove that you have achieved your research aims; if they are too broad, this will be an almost impossible task. In the early stages of your research project, your priority should be to narrow your study to a specific area. A good way to do this is to take the time to study existing literature, question their current approaches, findings and limitations, and consider whether there are any recurring gaps that could be investigated .
Note: Achieving a set of aims does not necessarily mean proving or disproving a theory or hypothesis, even if your research aim was to, but having done enough work to provide a useful and original insight into the principles that underlie your research aim.
Be realistic about what you can achieve in the time you have available. It is natural to want to set ambitious research objectives that require sophisticated data collection and analysis, but only completing this with six months before the end of your PhD registration period is not a worthwhile trade-off.
Each research objective should have its own purpose and distinct measurable outcome. To this effect, a common mistake is to form research objectives which have large amounts of overlap. This makes it difficult to determine when an objective is truly complete, and also presents challenges in estimating the duration of objectives when creating your project timeline. It also makes it difficult to structure your thesis into unique chapters, making it more challenging for you to write and for your audience to read.
Fortunately, this oversight can be easily avoided by using SMART objectives.
Hopefully, you now have a good idea of how to create an effective set of aims and objectives for your research project, whether it be a thesis, dissertation or research paper. While it may be tempting to dive directly into your research, spending time on getting your aims and objectives right will give your research clear direction. This won’t only reduce the likelihood of problems arising later down the line, but will also lead to a more thorough and coherent research project.
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How to structure a good research brief.
Like many other things in life, you get out of a research project what you put into it. The time you spend at the beginning of a project, thinking about exactly what you want to get from the research, is crucial and will reap you rewards when the end results are delivered.
A written research brief is a great tool to give the researcher/ agency a clear understanding of what is required from them during the research and what you hope to achieve from it. When writing a brief, there is quite a straightforward structure you can use to help shape your thinking…
Provide sufficient background information on your organisation and the context surrounding the proposed research project.
2. The ‘why’ before ‘how’
Include an understanding of ‘ why ’ the research is needed and what are the results going to be used for. This is one of the most important elements of a research brief. Planning ‘how’ the research is going to be conducted should not be thought about until the ‘why’ is delivered and fully understood. (The ‘why’ will often even shape the ‘how’!)
3. Research objectives
Research objectives are absolutely key as they provide the foundations of an effective research project . Take the time to think about exactly what you want to learn from the research and display this through clear, well thought-out research objectives. This will then result in a sound, actionable piece of research for your organisation.
4. Target audience
Give as much information as possible on the types of people you want to include within the research as well as any supporting information you may have about these people. For example , the definition of any target groups, their preferred size, geographical distribution etc.
5. Budget and timings
It may feel uncomfortable at first but sharing your budget for research in the briefing document can save a lot of time and effort by ensuring that the researcher/ agency crafts a realistic approach to the project. Alongside this, knowing the timings for when the results are required may also have an impact on the method for the research so these should again be outlined in the initial brief.
6. Any other competitors (if applicable)
Ensure you let the researcher/ agency know if the project is being submitted to more than one competitor and, if so, how many they will be competing with. The Market Research Society recommends approaching no more than three or four agencies for quotations. In addition, all of the researchers/ agencies should be treated equally, given the same information and their proposals for the project should not be shared with one another.
Following this devised framework will offer you a solid foundation for a successful research brief, ensuring you get what you need from the research and it provides you with as much benefit as possible.
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A good market research brief helps agencies lead successful projects. Learn what to include and how to write a detailed brief with our template guide.
A market research brief is a client document outlining all the relevant information that a research agency needs to understand the client’s specific research needs to propose the most suitable course of action.
A clear, informed brief will ensure the market researcher can deliver the most effective research possible. It also streamlines the project by reducing the need for back and forth between your company and the researcher. A good brief will leave no confusion and provide a meaningful framework for you and the researcher, maximising the accuracy and reliability of insights collected.
In this article, we’ve broken down the key components of a well-written brief, with examples. Using this template guide, you can confidently equip the researcher with the right information to deliver exemplary research for your next project.
This section of the brief introduces your company to the market researcher, giving them a more informed overview of your brand, product/service, and target market. You should provide all available context to ensure you and the researcher are on the same page with the project.
Relevant information to add in this section includes: company details, company mission/vision, industry status and trends, market performance history, competitive context, any existing research.
Your business objectives/marketing objectives should answer why you are being asked to conduct the research. The researcher should be able to grasp the existing problems/issues your company is looking to address in the research.
For example, this could involve sales, competition, customer satisfaction, or product innovation, to name a few.
Research objectives address the specific questions you would like the research to cover, including what insights you wish to gain. This is where you should detail what actions your company is planning to take based on the research you are commissioning.
Your research objective is one of the most important elements of your brief, as it dictates how your study will be conducted and the quality of results.
Who will this research focus on? This is where you should state respondents’ demographic and profiling information, along with any pre-existing segments you want to target. Be specific, but also be aware that the more restrictive the criteria are, the higher the sample cost will be. Extensive limitations are also realistically harder to meet.
For example:
Action standards outline which criteria will determine the decisions you make following research. These should detail specific numerical scores and any company benchmarks which need to be met in your research results for decision-making to go ahead. Clear and detailed action standards will allow you to make decisions faster and more confidently following research.
Nestlé’s 60/40 action standard which prioritises preference and nutrition, by aiming “to make products that achieve at least 60% consumer taste preference with the added ‘plus’ of nutritional advantage”.
Pricing is seen as credible by at least 40% of the target market.
Product has at least 50% acceptance from the target market.
You should only include methodology if you are certain of the approach you want to take. If you do not know which methodology you should use, leave this section blank for agency recommendations.
Monadic test : Monadic testing introduces survey respondents to individual concepts, products in isolation. It is usually used in studies where independent findings for each stimulus are required, unlike in comparison testing, where several stimuli are tested side-by-side. Each product/concept is displayed and evaluated separately, providing more accurate and meaningful results for specific items.
Discrete choice modelling : Sometimes referred to as choice-based conjoint, discrete choice is a more robust technique consistent with random utility theory and has been proven to simulate customers’ actual behaviour in the marketplace. The output on relative importance of attributes and value by level is aligned to the output from conjoint analysis (partworth analysis).
Qualitative research : Qualitative forms of research focus on non-numerical and unstructured data, such as participant observation, direct observation, unstructured interviews, and case studies.
Quantitative research : Numbers and measurable forms of data make up quantitative research, focusing on ‘how many’, ‘how often’, and ‘how much’, e.g. conjoint analysis , MaxDiff , Gabor-Granger , Van Westendorp .
Deliverables should clearly outline project expectations – both from your company and the agency. This should cover who is responsible for everything required to undertake research, including survey inputs and outputs, materials, reporting, reviewing, and any additional requirements.
Timing covers the due dates for key milestones of your research project, most importantly, for your preliminary and final reports. Cost should include your project budget, along with any potential additional costs/constraints.
This section states all stakeholders involved in the project, their role and responsibilities, and their contact details. You should ensure that these are easy to locate on your brief, for quick reference by the agency and easier communication.
Start your research project faster and get better results. Using this template, you can confidently equip the researcher with the right information to deliver exemplary research for your next project.
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Imagine you’re a student planning a vacation in a foreign country. You’re on a tight budget and need to draw…
Imagine you’re a student planning a vacation in a foreign country. You’re on a tight budget and need to draw up a pocket-friendly plan. Where do you begin? The first step is to do your research.
Before that, you make a mental list of your objectives—finding reasonably-priced hotels, traveling safely and finding ways of communicating with someone back home. These objectives help you focus sharply during your research and be aware of the finer details of your trip.
More often than not, research is a part of our daily lives. Whether it’s to pick a restaurant for your next birthday dinner or to prepare a presentation at work, good research is the foundation of effective learning. Read on to understand the meaning, importance and examples of research objectives.
What are the objectives of research, what goes into a research plan.
Research is a careful and detailed study of a particular problem or concern, using scientific methods. An in-depth analysis of information creates space for generating new questions, concepts and understandings. The main objective of research is to explore the unknown and unlock new possibilities. It’s an essential component of success.
Over the years, businesses have started emphasizing the need for research. You’ve probably noticed organizations hiring research managers and analysts. The primary purpose of business research is to determine the goals and opportunities of an organization. It’s critical in making business decisions and appropriately allocating available resources.
Here are a few benefits of research that’ll explain why it is a vital aspect of our professional lives:
One of the greatest benefits of research is to learn and gain a deeper understanding. The deeper you dig into a topic, the more well-versed you are. Furthermore, research has the power to help you build on any personal experience you have on the subject.
Research encourages you to discover the most recent information available. Updated information prevents you from falling behind and helps you present accurate information. You’re better equipped to develop ideas or talk about a topic when you’re armed with the latest inputs.
Research provides you with a good foundation upon which you can develop your thoughts and ideas. People take you more seriously when your suggestions are backed by research. You can speak with greater confidence because you know that the information is accurate.
Take any leading nonprofit organization, you’ll see how they have a strong research arm supported by real-life stories. Research also becomes the base upon which real-life connections and impact can be made. It even helps you communicate better with others and conveys why you’re pursuing something.
As we’ve already established, research is mostly about using existing information to create new ideas and opinions. In the process, it sparks curiosity as you’re encouraged to explore and gain deeper insights into a subject. Curiosity leads to higher levels of positivity and lower levels of anxiety.
Well-defined objectives of research are an essential component of successful research engagement. If you want to drive all aspects of your research methodology such as data collection, design, analysis and recommendation, you need to lay down the objectives of research methodology. In other words, the objectives of research should address the underlying purpose of investigation and analysis. It should outline the steps you’d take to achieve desirable outcomes. Research objectives help you stay focused and adjust your expectations as you progress.
The objectives of research should be closely related to the problem statement, giving way to specific and achievable goals. Here are the four types of research objectives for you to explore:
Also known as secondary objectives, general objectives provide a detailed view of the aim of a study. In other words, you get a general overview of what you want to achieve by the end of your study. For example, if you want to study an organization’s contribution to environmental sustainability, your general objective could be: a study of sustainable practices and the use of renewable energy by the organization.
Specific objectives define the primary aim of the study. Typically, general objectives provide the foundation for identifying specific objectives. In other words, when general objectives are broken down into smaller and logically connected objectives, they’re known as specific objectives. They help define the who, what, why, when and how aspects of your project. Once you identify the main objective of research, it’s easier to develop and pursue a plan of action.
Let’s take the example of ‘a study of an organization’s contribution to environmental sustainability’ again. The specific objectives will look like this:
To determine through history how the organization has changed its practices and adopted new solutions
To assess how the new practices, technology and strategies will contribute to the overall effectiveness
Once you’ve identified the objectives of research, it’s time to organize your thoughts and streamline your research goals. Here are a few effective tips to develop a powerful research plan and improve your business performance.
Your research objectives should be SMART—Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-constrained. When you focus on utilizing available resources and setting realistic timeframes and milestones, it’s easier to prioritize objectives. Continuously track your progress and check whether you need to revise your expectations or targets. This way, you’re in greater control over the process.
Create a plan that’ll help you select appropriate methods to collect accurate information. A well-structured plan allows you to use logical and creative approaches towards problem-solving. The complexity of information and your skills are bound to influence your plan, which is why you need to make room for flexibility. The availability of resources will also play a big role in influencing your decisions.
After you’ve created a plan for the research process, make a list of the data you’re going to collect and the methods you’ll use. Not only will it help make sense of your insights but also keep track of your approach. The information you collect should be:
Logical, rigorous and objective
Can be reproduced by other people working on the same subject
Free of errors and highlighting necessary details
Current and updated
Includes everything required to support your argument/suggestions
Data analysis is the most crucial part of the process and there are many ways in which the information can be utilized. Four types of data analysis are often seen in a professional environment. While they may be divided into separate categories, they’re linked to each other.
The most commonly used data analysis, descriptive analysis simply summarizes past data. For example, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) use descriptive analysis. It establishes certain benchmarks after studying how someone has been performing in the past.
The next step is to identify why something happened. Diagnostic analysis uses the information gathered through descriptive analysis and helps find the underlying causes of an outcome. For example, if a marketing initiative was successful, you deep-dive into the strategies that worked.
It attempts to answer ‘what’s likely to happen’. Predictive analysis makes use of past data to predict future outcomes. However, the accuracy of predictions depends on the quality of the data provided. Risk assessment is an ideal example of using predictive analysis.
The most sought-after type of data analysis, prescriptive analysis combines the insights of all of the previous analyses. It’s a huge organizational commitment as it requires plenty of effort and resources. A great example of prescriptive analysis is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which consumes large amounts of data. You need to be prepared to commit to this type of analysis.
Once you’ve collected and collated your data, it’s time to review it and draw accurate conclusions. Here are a few ways to improve the review process:
Identify the fundamental issues, opportunities and problems and make note of recurring trends if any
Make a list of your insights and check which is the most or the least common. In short, keep track of the frequency of each insight
Conduct a SWOT analysis and identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
Write down your conclusions and recommendations of the research
When we think about research, we often associate it with academicians and students. but the truth is research is for everybody who is willing to learn and enhance their knowledge. If you want to master the art of strategically upgrading your knowledge, Harappa Education’s Learning Expertly course has all the answers. Not only will it help you look at things from a fresh perspective but also show you how to acquire new information with greater efficiency. The Growth Mindset framework will teach you how to believe in your abilities to grow and improve. The Learning Transfer framework will help you apply your learnings from one context to another. Begin the journey of tactful learning and self-improvement today!
Explore Harappa Diaries to learn more about topics related to the THINK Habit such as Learning From Experience , Critical Thinking & What is Brainstorming to think clearly and rationally.
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Published on October 30, 2022 by Shona McCombes . Revised on October 19, 2023.
The research question is one of the most important parts of your research paper , thesis or dissertation . It’s important to spend some time assessing and refining your question before you get started.
The exact form of your question will depend on a few things, such as the length of your project, the type of research you’re conducting, the topic , and the research problem . However, all research questions should be focused, specific, and relevant to a timely social or scholarly issue.
Once you’ve read our guide on how to write a research question , you can use these examples to craft your own.
Research question | Explanation |
---|---|
The first question is not enough. The second question is more , using . | |
Starting with “why” often means that your question is not enough: there are too many possible answers. By targeting just one aspect of the problem, the second question offers a clear path for research. | |
The first question is too broad and subjective: there’s no clear criteria for what counts as “better.” The second question is much more . It uses clearly defined terms and narrows its focus to a specific population. | |
It is generally not for academic research to answer broad normative questions. The second question is more specific, aiming to gain an understanding of possible solutions in order to make informed recommendations. | |
The first question is too simple: it can be answered with a simple yes or no. The second question is , requiring in-depth investigation and the development of an original argument. | |
The first question is too broad and not very . The second question identifies an underexplored aspect of the topic that requires investigation of various to answer. | |
The first question is not enough: it tries to address two different (the quality of sexual health services and LGBT support services). Even though the two issues are related, it’s not clear how the research will bring them together. The second integrates the two problems into one focused, specific question. | |
The first question is too simple, asking for a straightforward fact that can be easily found online. The second is a more question that requires and detailed discussion to answer. | |
? dealt with the theme of racism through casting, staging, and allusion to contemporary events? | The first question is not — it would be very difficult to contribute anything new. The second question takes a specific angle to make an original argument, and has more relevance to current social concerns and debates. |
The first question asks for a ready-made solution, and is not . The second question is a clearer comparative question, but note that it may not be practically . For a smaller research project or thesis, it could be narrowed down further to focus on the effectiveness of drunk driving laws in just one or two countries. |
Note that the design of your research question can depend on what method you are pursuing. Here are a few options for qualitative, quantitative, and statistical research questions.
Type of research | Example question |
---|---|
Qualitative research question | |
Quantitative research question | |
Statistical research question |
If you want to know more about the research process , methodology , research bias , or statistics , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.
Methodology
Statistics
Research bias
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June 12, 2023 | By Hitesh Bhasin | Filed Under: Marketing
Have you ever faced a situation where a researcher has not exactly given the results that you require? Have you ever discussed research as what you want precisely and been disappointed to find that there is a disparity in your expectation and the outcomes? This is because of a failure in communication , that is particular an insufficient brief.
This is where we exactly wish to discuss research brief.
A research brief is a statement that comes from the sponsor, who sets the objectives and background. This is to enable the researcher to plan the research and conduct an appropriate study on it. Research Brief can be as good as a market research study and is very important to a researcher.
It provides good insight and influences on the choice of methodology to be adopted in the research. It also provides an objective to which the project links itself.
It is a short and non-technical summary of a discussion paper that is purely intended for decision-makers with a concentration on the paper’s policy-relevant findings.
Table of Contents
Some sponsors deliver the brief orally by developing many detail points at the time of initial discussion with the researcher. On the other hand, the brief can also be completely thought through and committed to a paper.
This is very important when many research agencies need to submit proposals. Whether the research brief is oral or written, it should pay attention to the following points:
Now, why is research brief important? It is like the way you set a foundation for a building; research brief provides a strong foundation for the research process.
Writing a research brief is important to the success of any market research project. However, it can be difficult to craft the perfect brief that meets the necessity of both the client and the researcher but eventually leads to the desired outcomes.
It helps a researcher to identify a problem to be researched, the exact background of the problem, the required details to address the problem, time and budget constraints within which the research is supposed to be designed.
Keeping the above points in mind, let us take a small example of the way to write a market research brief.
To write a market research brief, it clarifies the research requirement and also makes sure that the ideas are well articulated. It helps to write a better research proposal , conduct user research, and achieve the desired outcome.
Describe the problem that is required to solve. Include applicable background and the challenge during the research.
Explain the business objectives. For example: to increase sales /profit. Try to be specific as you can.
Also, describe the purpose of research and the expected outcomes. What is the decision that you require to make?
Market research objective typically follows from the above two objectives. Hence you will need to summarise the aim and information of the research. This will help to mention the questions required for answering.
Here, you will need to consider the participant who will sign-off and act on the research outcomes listed.
Research Methods, scope, sample, and guidelines:
Here, you will explain what is required. This will help you to focus on what is important and also have a piece of knowledge of the research investment. Here, more focus is given on the scope of the work and type of research . The inputs and the sample are also analyzed.
Research outcomes:
Here, you will require to define the delivery part of the research.
Having discussed the basic of research brief, the following points will give you a brief idea of the ways to prepare yourself to write an effective research brief.
Given below the template for research brief:
#1 background.
In this area, give the background of the research brief.
In this area, define the business objectives. Ideally, for a better understanding and readability, it would be good if the points are bulleted.
In this area, type your marketing objectives. In case you have any other kind of objectives apart from marketing, you could change the section title.
In this area, define the research target here. Here, name all the target groups that will be a part of the research and the reason for it. Capture any other applicable details of the target group .
In this area, mention the Budget information. Mentioning a range of budget is fine. Also, indicate an upper limit in case you have any.
In this area, mention the timeline of the research. The approximate time as when this work would be over. Also, when can you provide the final analysis?
In this area, mention the report requirements. For example, whether a detail report is required or just a presentation.
In this area, mention the contact information for questions or clarification. It could be Client company name or Individual name, title, e-mail id, phone number, and mailing address.
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Hitesh Bhasin is the CEO of Marketing91 and has over a decade of experience in the marketing field. He is an accomplished author of thousands of insightful articles, including in-depth analyses of brands and companies. Holding an MBA in Marketing, Hitesh manages several offline ventures, where he applies all the concepts of Marketing that he writes about.
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A research objective, also known as a goal or an objective, is a sentence or question that summarizes the purpose of your study or test. In other words, it’s an idea you want to understand deeper by performing research. Objectives should be the driving force behind every task you assign and each question that you ask. These objectives should be centered on specific features or processes of your product. By having a solid understanding of the information you need when running your usability study, you’ll be able to better stay on track throughout your development process.
Before you write your objective, you need a problem statement , which you can source from your support team and the frequent customer issues they encounter, negative customer reviews , or feedback from social media. From there, your objective might look like, “Do people find value in this new product idea?” or “How do our competitors describe their offerings compared to us?”
Many UX researchers agree that the more specific the objectives, the easier it is to write tasks and questions. Subsequently, it’ll also be easier to extract answers later on in the analysis. In addition, your objective doesn’t have to spark one angle alone; it could have the potential to inspire multiple test directions. For instance, take this research objective, “I want to understand and resolve the barriers customers face when looking for answers about products and services on our website.”
From this one objective, potential study angles could be:
As you can see, the above objective can be branched out to address content, usability, and design. For further inspiration, collaborate with the product’s stakeholders. You can start the conversation at a high level by determining what features or processes they want test participants to review, like a navigation menu or website messaging.
And before you put a stamp of approval on a research objective, ask for feedback from your team. Two researchers could write very different test plans when an objective is unclear or misaligned. For example, one researcher may hone in on design while another focuses on usability. Meanwhile, another may keep their objective more broad while another writes on that’s more detailed. And while the findings from either case would be insightful, they might not match up with what the team actually needs to learn. So to summarize, start the process with a problem statement, loop in stakeholders early if applicable, and ensure your team is aligned on your objective(s).
Writing and refining your research objective should come after you have a clear problem statement and before you decide on a research method and test plan to execute your study.
After you’ve written a rough draft of your research objective, the ink might not even be dry when stakeholders could get involved by offering you an abundance of objectives. To figure out what to tackle first, ask your stakeholders to prioritize their needs. This step could happen via email or in a meeting, but another method could be to list out all of the possible objectives in a Google form and have everyone rearrange the list into their ideal order.
And if stakeholders haven’t handed you a list of objectives and you’re on your own for brainstorming and prioritizing, opt for the objective that’s tied to a KPI—from increasing website conversions to driving more daily active users in your SaaS product. This will help you size up the relevance and impact your research has on the metrics your business is measuring. The added benefit here is when you’re asked about the impact of that research, you can tie back your ROI calculations to tangible and relatable objectives that you know the business is tracking.
The type of research you do will depend on the stage of product development you’re in. Each stage of development has different research objectives—and different questions that need to be answered. And once you’ve decided on a problem statement, you could either have one or multiple research objectives that tie back to that statement. Typically, this means that you’ll want to select one to three objectives; the less you have, the more manageable your test (and timeline) will be.
For more, the UserTesting template library is a great place to start for common questions that you need answers to or inspiration for your research objective.
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BMC Research Notes volume 17 , Article number: 170 ( 2024 ) Cite this article
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The study objective was to investigate the potential of quantitative measures of pulmonary inflammation by [18 F]Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) as a surrogate marker of inflammation in COPD. Patients treated with anti-inflammatory Liraglutide were compared to placebo and correlated with inflammatory markers. 27 COPD-patients (14 receiving Liraglutide treatment and 13 receiving placebo) underwent 4D-respiratory-gated FDG-PET/CT before and after treatment. Two raters independently segmented the lungs from CT images and measured activity in whole lung, mean standard uptake values (SUVmean) corrected for lean-body-mass in the phase-matched PET images of the whole segmented lung volume, and total lesion glycolysis (TLG; SUVmean multiplied by volume). Inter-rater reliability was analyzed with Bland-Altman analysis and correlation plots. We found no differences in metabolic activity in the lungs between the two groups as a surrogate of pulmonary inflammation, and no changes in inflammation markers. The purpose of the research and brief summary of main findings. The degree of and changes in pulmonary inflammation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may be difficult to ascertain. Measuring metabolic activity as a surrogate marker of inflammation by FDG-PET/CT may be useful, but data on its use in COPD including reproducibility is still limited, especially with respiration-gated technique, which should improve quantification in the lungs. We assessed several quantitative measures of metabolic activity and correlated them with inflammation markers, and we assessed reproducibility of the methods. We found no differences in metabolic activity between the two groups (before and after 40 weeks treatment with Liraglutide vs. placebo). Bland-Altman analysis showed good agreement between the two raters.
The study was conducted between February 2018 and March 2020 at the Department of Pulmonary Diseases at Hospital South West Jutland and Lillebaelt Hospital, Denmark, and registered from March 2018 at clinicaltrials.gov with trial registration number NCT03466021.
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[ 18 F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography computerized tomography (FDG-PET/CT) is a well-established molecular imaging technique with an increasing role in infectious and inflammatory diseases. It assesses glucose metabolism as a surrogate marker of disease activity on the molecular level [ 1 ].
Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) affect millions of people worldwide with chronic inflammation in airway and lungs, airway limitation and significant morbidity and healthcare utilization. Inflammation plays a significant role, and quantification of inflammatory markers are essential in stable phases and during exacerbations in COPD [ 2 ].
Glucagon-Like-Peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) are used in treatment of diabetes type 2 and for the purpose of weight loss. Among other tissues, GLP-1 receptors are expressed in the lungs and exhibit anti-inflammatory properties by reducing circulating inflammatory markers thereby reducing COPD morbidity and mortality in mice and among patients, GLP-1 RA reduce respiratory diseases including COPD exacerbations [ 3 , 4 ].
Objective and non-invasive assessment of response to medical treatment in inflammatory diseases may be challenging. FDG-PET/CT is already widely employed to assess inflammation in clinical settings and response evaluation in oncology, but there are only few results regarding response evaluation in inflammatory diseases. However, earlier studies did assess the use of FDG-PET/CT to access inflammation at various stages or to differentiate various subtypes of COPD, but studies were small and exploratory. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first RCT with a well-defined patient population with FDG-PET/CT to assess the effect of intervention.
The rationale to employ respiratory gating is the inherent challenges with movement in the lung region during the long acquisition times of PET/CT. Especially the high activity in the liver could influence the overall quantification of the expected low and diffuse lung uptake if the motion during respiration is not accounted for. Further by applying 4D-respiratory-gated PET/CT we assured alignment of CT and PET during the complete respiratory cycle, which results in improved attenuation and scatter correction and that the delineation of the lungs from CT images would accurately be transferrable to quantify lung uptake in the PET images. All of this resulted in a more robust quantification of lung FDG uptake.
We aimed to investigate if respiration gated quantitative FDG-PET/CT measures, as surrogate for pulmonary inflammation, as well as markers of systemic inflammation are reduced in patients with COPD treated with GLP-1 RA for 40 weeks. Further, we assessed the reproducibility of the FDG-PET/CT measures.
We conducted a prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, double blinded, two-center, parallel-group trial between February 2018 and March 2020 at The Department of Medicine, Section of Pulmonary Diseases, Esbjerg Hospital and Lillebaelt Hospital, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Denmark.
We randomized 40 obese participants with COPD for treatment with Liraglutide 3.0 mg per day or placebo in a 1:1 manner and followed them for 44 weeks as previously described [ 5 ]. We included people with COPD defined as forced expiratory volume in one second relative to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) < 70% after maximal bronchodilation in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines.
Participants were former smokers with 20 or more pack-years history of smoking and were 40–75 years of age. BMI above 27 kg/m2 was defined as inclusion criteria.
Exclusion criteria were treatment with systemic corticosteroids; diabetes mellitus of any type; interstitial pulmonary disease; asthma or asthma-COPD Overlap Syndrome (ACOS), severe hepatic, renal, or heart disease; history of pancreatitis; pregnancy or breastfeeding. As part of the study setup, we performed an FDG-PET/CT of the thorax at baseline (scan 1) and at end of medication at week 40 (scan 2) to assess any changes in pulmonary tracer uptake as a marker of inflammatory activity. Blood samples were assessed for inflammatory markers at baseline and after 40 weeks. We also conducted scans in three healthy controls and two patients with clinical COPD exacerbation.
FDG-PET/CT was performed according to department protocol based on EANM guidelines, i.e. patients fasted for at least 6 h prior to administration of a weight-adjusted dose of 4 MBq/kg FDG (min. 200 MBq-max. 400 MBq). Plasma glucose levels were routinely measured with an allowed maximum of 8 mmol/L (150 mg/dL). Time between injection and PET/CT acquisition was within 60 +/- 5 min. The 4D-respiratory-gated FDG-PET/CT was performed on a Discovery 710 (GE Healthcare, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA) using the real-time position management (RPM) respiratory gating system (Varian Medical Systems Inc., Palo Alto, CA) to monitor the participant’s respiration during acquisition.
Following the CT scan, a PET acquisition was performed over the same lung area comprised of two or three bed positions with 6 min. pr. bed and a slice overlap of 16 slices (34%) with scan field of view of 70 cm saved into list-mode files. Corrections for attenuation, randoms, deadtime, normalization and scatter were performed inside the iterative loop.
After PET reconstructions, the individual phases were summed into a single respiratory phase, using the Q.Freeze 1.0 algorithm. The best alignment between CT and PET images was ensured.
Analysis with regard to quantitative measurements were carried out using a GE Advantage Server 2.0 (GE Healthcare, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA). The analysis comprised segmenting both lungs by first applying a threshold with a maximum value of -600 Hounsfield units and manually masking out sections in the threshold that was not part of the lungs. The whole segmented lungs were then transferred as a VOI to the PET series, and the mean activity concentration was extracted. From this activity concentration, standard uptake values (SUVs) were calculated as SUV corrected for body weight (SUVbw) and SUV corrected for lean body mass (SUL). We calculated Total Lesion Glycolysis (TLG) normalizing mean SUVs for lung volume. A nuclear medicine specialist (SH) assessed all PET/CT scans visually.
In this part of the study, our aim was to quantify disease activity in the lungs at baseline and after treatment with Liraglutide 3.0 mg in terms of SUL, SUVbw and TLG. We measured systemic inflammation using the markers C-reactive protein (CRP) (Cardiophase hsCRP, Siemens Healthcare Diagnostic Products, Germany), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) (IL-6 and MCP-1 Quantikine ELISA kits, R&D Systems, UK).
To validate our findings from the scans, we performed the same gating and segmentation procedures in three controls, i.e. patients with no known pulmonary disorders. Finally, we performed segmentation, but not gating, in two patients with well-known exacerbation of COPD.
To investigate the reproducibility of lung segmentation and measures of pulmonary metabolic activity, a medical doctor (AD) and a physicist (TC) blinded to all information independently performed segmentation of the lungs in all study participants at scans 1 and 2. For analysis of inter-reader reliability Bland-Altman plots with 95% limits of agreement (LOA) and coefficient of variation (CV) where generated along with correlation plots with linear fit and calculated Pearson squared correlation coefficient (r 2 ) and sum of squared error (SSE). We used Wilcoxon rank sum test for statistical analysis and random effect models for calculating average group differences. The level of significance was < 5%.
Of 40 participants, 27 completed the study with both scans; 14 in the Liraglutide arm and 13 in the placebo arm. Baseline group characteristics including anthropometrics, lung function, lung volumina, disease burden and morbidity are listed in Table 1 . For further clinical results from the study, please consult [ 5 ].
We calculated results for differences between the Liraglutide and placebo group in measurements of SUL, SUVbw, and TLG. We observed no differences between baseline values of SUL, SUVbw, and TLG. At week 40, SUL was significantly higher in the Liraglutide group than in the placebo group, Table 2 .
Using mixed effect models, we estimated the effect of treatment on FDG-PET/CT parameters at week 40, separately for both raters. We calculated average group differences, defined as the difference between the average value of a measure in the Liraglutide group and the average value of the same measure in the placebo group at week 40 (scan 2).
We found no significant differences in SUL, SUVbw or TLG between the Liraglutide and placebo group after treatment (all p -values above 0.3). Results are given in Table 3 .
Figure 1 summarizes results for activity concentration, SUVbw, SUL, and TLG for Liraglutide and placebo groups at scan 2 and for COPD exacerbations and controls. We found no significant differences in any PET parameters when comparing the three controls to either Liraglutide or placebo groups. When we compared the results from the two patients with clinical COPD exacerbation to controls and the Liraglutide or placebo groups, we found a tendency towards higher values in patients with clinical COPD exacerbations. Results were most pronounced for overall tracer uptake and less pronounced for median values of SUVbw, SUL, and TLG.
Results for activity concentration, SUVbw, SUL, and TLG for Liraglutide ( N = 17) and placebo ( N = 13) (scan 2) for COPD exacerbations ( N = 2) and controls ( N = 3) (no known pulmonary disease)
When the uncorrected activity concentration were measured in the different groups, only the COPD group displayed a different and increased uptake value. When adjusting for the decay corrected injected activity and patient weight in SUVBw and SUL, this increased value in the COPD group was not found and measurements between groups was not significantly different although the placebo group had a tendency of lower values. Especially when adjusting for lean body mass in the SUL measurements the Liraglutide, COPD and control groups were almost identical, which was probably due to its correction for a non-equal distribution of male and female participants in the COPD and control group.
The TLG measurements took into consideration the total segmented lung volume of the measurements, which on average was found to be different for the different groups. However, this does not seem to be a reliable indicator of decease progress as no significant differences was found between the groups.
Both raters calculated equal values for SUL (0.31 in the Liraglutide group and 0.26 in the placebo group) and for SUVbw (0.49 and 0.43, respectively in the Liraglutide and placebo groups). The values for TLG differed more as shown in Table 2 . Bland-Altman analysis also showed good agreement between the two raters regarding activity concentration in the lungs (Figs. 2 and 3 ).
Bland-Altman plots and correlation plots for activity concentration at scan 1
Scan 1 activity concentration
Bland-Altman plots and correlation plots for activity concentration at scan 2
Scan 2 activity concentration
Inflammatory markers were measured in 30 completers (Liraglutide group, n = 17; placebo group, n = 13). Baseline concentrations of CRP and IL-6 were slightly elevated compared with normal ranges with median values of 3.69 and 4.37 mg/L for CRP and 5.05 and 4.38 pg/mL for IL-6 in the Liraglutide and placebo group, respectively. The normal ranges of inflammatory markers are given based on the laboratory’s normal ranges: CRP < 3 mg/L; MCP-1 = 72–295 pg/ml; IL-6 = 0.351–3.48 pg/ml (Table 4 ). Also MCP-1 levels were high in the normal range (72–295 pg/mL) with median values of 281 and 306 pg/mL in Liraglutide and placebo groups, respectively. We observed no between-group differences for median values of MCP-1, CRP, and IL-6 at baseline or after intervention at week 40 (Mann Whitney test). Further, we found no within-group changes in CRP, IL-6 and MCP-1 from baseline to week 40 in treatment or placebo groups (Table 4 ).
As part of a randomized clinical trial, 27 obese participants with COPD were scanned with FDG-PET/CT to quantify disease activity at baseline and after 40 weeks of treatment with Liraglutide 3.0 mg in terms of SUL, SUVbw, and TLG. We found no significant treatment effects for any of these parameters. As for plasma inflammation markers, we found no significant between-group effects and no changes from baseline to end of medication.
We compared our findings with uptake measures from three controls and two COPD patients with exacerbation. We found no difference in PET-based metabolic activity between project patients (Liraglutide and placebo) and controls. In patients with COPD exacerbation, we found higher values for tracer uptake resulting in higher values for SUL, SUVbw and TLG.
Bland-Altman plots showed that lung segmentation and the derived quantifications were reproducible.
Due to reported anti-inflammatory properties of GLP-1 RA, we expected the Liraglutide group to exhibit a reduction in systemic inflammatory markers. Similarly, we expected reduced PET-based metabolic activity in the lungs as a surrogate for inflammatory activity. Some previous studies on FDG-PET/CT found increased FDG lung uptake in COPD patients or current smokers compared to never-smokers as well as a correlation between FDG lung uptake and CRP. This inflammatory response in the airways with active neutrophils showed the potential of FDG as a surrogate marker of pulmonary inflammation [ 6 ]. Other studies found a correlation between metabolic activity in the intercostal accessory respiration muscles as a surrogate marker of COPD severity or increased FDG uptake in right ventricle indicating cor pulmonale secondary to pulmonary hypertension with increased severity of COPD [ 7 ].
However, we could not reproduce any of these findings in our study, for neither the inflammatory markers nor the PET-findings, and one explanation may be our study population; the inflammation markers were only slightly elevated or high in the normal range perhaps reflecting limited chronic disease activity. In addition, we measured inflammation markers in stable phases and not under exacerbations, where they are usually elevated. We cannot exclude statistical type II errors due to the relatively low number of study completers. Finally, differences in underlying methodology between the studies hamper direct comparison.
An indicator that the lack of positive findings in our primary study population may be due to overall low-level inflammation is the finding in the two patients with active COPD exacerbation, i.e. a tendency towards higher FDG-uptake in the lungs suggesting higher overall metabolism that may be due to generalized inflammation. However, motion artefacts may have influenced these results. Normal breathing motion causes motion blur artefacts in PET images. Ungated measurements may lead to falsely increased activity from liver activity measured as part of the lungs due to respiration motion. Our primary series were gated with limited impact from liver activity, but in the patients with COPD, the lack of gating may have influenced the overall lung activity. Respiration-gated PET approaches are employed to reduce the blurring effects in some clinical settings. In fact, others have found similarly equivocal results regarding whole lung quantification and proposed that the activity in whole lung may be too insensitive to detect lung inflammation at all [ 8 ]. To the best of our knowledge, there is no data on the reproducibility of respiration- gated segmentation in lung inflammation.
There might be different limitations in our study:
The sample size is relatively small and furthermore the number of participants completing both scans were only 27 compared to the 40 patients included and randomized based on our power calculation.
The study population may not have been be severely affected by COPD. We scanned the participants and measured circulating inflammation markers in stable phases of COPD, which might neglect a potential increase in inflammation in acute phases of the disease. A higher degree of disease burden in terms MRC dyspnea scale, eosinophils, number of exacerbations and the level of inflammatory markers under exacerbations could have affected the results positively, as indicated by the two COPD patients with exacerbation.
The rationale for using respiration gating was an attempt to alleviate the potential effects of blurring from thoracic or abdominal movements from breathing which may cause a spillover of activity from the liver. The significance and impact of the methodology in this context remains unclear.
The anti-inflammatory effect of Liraglutide also remains unconvincing in this setting and treatment with a more potent GLP-1 RA, eventually for a longer period, might have more anti-inflammatory effects.
In contrast to other studies, we were not able to demonstrate differences in pulmonary inflammation using FDG-PET/CT in people with COPD before and after treatment with Liraglutide. With reference to the anti-inflammatory effects of Liraglutide and the promising role of FDG-PET/CT in the diagnosis of infectious and inflammatory diseases, we expected to find decreased uptake following treatment with Liraglutide. However, this was not the case. The inflammatory response may depend on the severity of COPD at the time of the scan (stable COPD versus exacerbation), and the patient population may simply have been in too stable stages. Based on our results, general application of FDG-PET/CT (with or without respiratory gating) in COPD cannot be recommended in relatively stable phases but whether FDG-PET-CT has a role in subset of COPD patients (e.g. more inflammatory active COPD or exacerbation) still needs further investigation.
Datasets from the study are stored online in REDCap database. Data are available for the corresponding author and some of the other authors. Access to data is possible by contacting the authors.
Some of the datasets, especially regarding FDG-PET/CT are also are also stored in AV Server regarding calculations about PET parameters.
Data are also stored as written Case Report Forms (CRF) at the respective trial sites in locked rooms for 5 years.
The CRF are checked and monitored by the Good Clinical Practice Unit at University of Southern Denmark.
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The authors would like to thank:
OPEN (Open Patient data Explorative Network) for providing support on the establishment and maintenance of our REDCap database and for statistical support.
Unit for Thrombosis Research, Department of Clinical Biochemistry for handling blood sampling and biochemical measurements.
The study nurses at Hospital South West Jutland and Hospital Lillebælt for excellent technical assistance.
Jeppe Gram, MD., Ph.D. for invaluable scientific advises.
Novo Nordisk as a part of the Investigator Sponsored Studies Program provides study medication and running costs.
Partial financial support was received from Karola Jørgensens Forskningsfond, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark.
Partial financial support was received from Research council of Hospital South West Jutland, University hospital of Southern Denmark.
Partial financial support was received from the Region of Southern Denmark.
Open access funding provided by University of Southern Denmark
Authors and affiliations.
Department of Medicine, Regional Hospital Horsens, Sundvej 30, 8700, Horsens, Denmark
Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan
Department of Medicine, Hospital South West Jutland, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan, Torben Tranborg Jensen & Claus Bogh Juhl
Department of Regional Health Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan, Ole Hilberg, Else-Marie Bladbjerg & Søren Hess
Department of Medicine, Lillebaelt Hospital, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle, Denmark
Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan & Ole Hilberg
Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Hospital South West Jutland, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
Thomas Quist Christensen & Søren Hess
Steno Diabetes Center, Odense, Denmark
Claus Bogh Juhl
Department of Clinical Diagnostics, Unit for Thrombosis Research, Hospital South West Jutland, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
Else-Marie Bladbjerg
Department of Clinical Engineering, Region of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
Thomas Quist Christensen
IRIS – Imaging Research Initiative Southwest, Esbjerg, Denmark
Department of Nuclear Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
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All authors contributed to the study conceptualization and methodology. Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan, Claus Bogh Juhl, Else-Marie Bladbjerg, Søren Hess and Thomas Quist Christensen performed data curation, formal analysis, investigation and project administration. FDG-PET/CT scans were reported by Søren Hess and analyzed by Thomas Quist Christensen and Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan.
Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan wrote the original draft of the manuscript. Thomas Quist Christensen wrote most of methodology. All authors reviewed and edited on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Correspondence to Ayse Dudu Altintas Dogan .
Ethics approval and consent to participate.
The trial was conducted in accordance with the declaration of Helsinki after approval by the Scientific Ethics Committee of The Region of Southern Denmark (j. no S-20170147) and Eudract (j. no. 2017-003551-32). The study was reported at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03466021) and monitored according to Good Clinical Practice (GCP) by the GCP Unit of Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study
Competing interests.
CBJ serves as a speaker for Novo Nordisk, but has no financial interest in the current study. Study medication and running costs were provided by Novo Nordisk as a part of the Investigator Sponsored Studies Program. The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
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Dogan, A.D.A., Christensen, T.Q., Jensen, T.T. et al. FDG-PET/CT-based respiration-gated lung segmentation and quantification of lung inflammation in COPD patients. BMC Res Notes 17 , 170 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-024-06820-w
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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-024-06820-w
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AI is holding out the prospect of substantial productivity improvements. While the potential of AI may be large, it is uncertain how much of that potential will be realized and how fast it will occur. Recent estimates of the medium-term AI impact on labor productivity range from negligible to larger than the 1990s IT impact. But should AI meaningfully affect medium-term productivity growth, monetary policy is likely to respond by accommodating the increase in potential output. On the other hand, recalling the 1990s IT diffusion, one should not be too surprised that, even though AI is apparently everywhere, it hasn't yet noticeably improved one's experience with chatbots.
AI has received a lot of attention lately, especially generative AI that can create new content, such as ChatGPT for text. How will AI affect the productive potential of the economy? How will it affect labor markets? How soon can we expect AI adoption to show up in aggregate GDP growth? These are questions that are of interest for monetary policymakers to the extent that they affect the estimates of potential output growth and long-run interest rates in the economy.
Being at the early stages of AI adoption, the answers to the questions above will of course be highly speculative. In this article, I focus on three recent studies that have tried to provide estimates of the impact of AI adoption on the U.S. economy's productivity:
These studies use a common conceptual framework, and they rely on an overlapping collection of primary research on the potential applications and benefits from AI. However, even within this common framework, the studies come to widely different conclusions on how much AI will potentially increase productivity over the next 10 years. These conclusions range from less than 1 percent to 20 percent, which would correspond to annual growth rates of 0.1 to 2.0 percent.
For perspective, labor productivity over the last 10 years — a period of relatively low productivity growth — has averaged about 1.5 percent per year. Labor productivity growth following World War II peaked in the late 1950s and late 1990s, with average annual growth rates of about 3 percent, as seen in Figure 1. 1 Thus, even if AI-induced growth adds to an underlying growth rate of 1.5 percent, the overall impact ranges from negligible to bringing growth close to post-WWII peaks.
The common conceptual framework of the studies I use starts with an estimate of the range of occupations potentially affected by AI. It then estimates how much AI will improve the labor efficiency in these occupations.
There is a limited number of studies on labor efficiency increases among early AI adopters. 2 For example, one study has found that coders can fulfill their tasks twice as fast with the support of AI, and another study found that the performance of novice call center employees improves by 30 percent . 3
On one hand, one would expect early adopters of AI to pick low-hanging fruit and find the most immediate gains. On the other hand, however, AI adopters may well become better over time at finding efficient applications of AI. Based on the available evidence, AI applications will make overall labor about 30 percent more efficient on average. But how many occupations will benefit from the application of AI?
The Department of Labor maintains the O*NET database for occupations in the U.S. The database provides a verbal description of each occupation and a classification of tasks performed and of worker qualifications required. Several studies have classified occupations in this database as to whether AI can potentially perform some or all the tasks required. One study argues that about 80 percent of all occupations could see at least 10 percent of their tasks benefit from the application of AI. 4
This provides the starting point for an estimate of potential AI applications. We next need estimates of the share of tasks amenable to the application of AI and the timeframe within which the potential can be exploited. Then, we need to weight the contributions of different occupations to aggregate labor, which is usually done using relative wages. Finally, we need to recognize that an increase in labor efficiency does not translate directly to an increase in labor productivity, since there are diminishing marginal returns to labor. As a first-order approximation, we frequently use the labor income share in value added as a measure of the labor elasticity of output. Depending on these adjustments, the three studies I listed argue that AI can potentially increase the effective output contributions of labor by 5 percent to 60 percent over the next 10 years.
Combining the potential labor efficiency gains with the potential occupational base to which they might apply, we get that labor productivity could increase between 1.5 percent and 18 percent over the next 10 years. This ranges from barely noticeable to substantial.
Naturally, there are a number of qualifications that are important to note when estimating the potential impact of AI on labor productivity. The following discusses some significant qualifications regarding this exercise.
Labor Reallocation
A differential increase of labor efficiency across occupations will likely lead to a reallocation of labor towards occupations that become relatively more efficient. This indirect effect will further increase labor productivity. However, if we assume that the economy starts with an efficient allocation of labor across occupations, this will have only second-order effects.
Labor Complements vs Labor Displacement
We have assumed that the application of AI is complementary to labor. That is, we assume it enhances the effectiveness of labor and does not displace it. This is the opposite of the concerns expressed in recent years that automation is displacing medium-wage occupations that mostly perform routine cognitive tasks.
The three studies do not take a strong stance on the potential displacement of workers and/or occupations. If AI can completely substitute for the tasks performed by labor in an occupation, labor is likely to be displaced. This will result in a further increase of labor productivity. Whether this will lead to temporary or permanent employment reductions is an open question. On an optimistic note, labor productivity has more than quadrupled in the post-WWII period, while employment almost tripled.
Capital Accumulation
Once labor becomes more efficient, it becomes more attractive to pair it with additional capital. Thus, induced capital accumulation may lead to further increases in labor productivity. However, the studies on the efficiency gains from the application of AI to various tasks already include increased capital. In fact, in the National Income and Product Accounts , the development of AI should be represented as investment in intellectual property products. Thus, the additional productivity gains from induced capital accumulation may already be included in the current estimates for efficiency gains.
Impact on Baseline Labor Productivity Growth
The impact of AI on baseline labor productivity growth is not obvious. The estimates above assume a one-time permanent increase of labor productivity in a class of occupations, independent of other changes to labor productivity.
But labor productivity in the U.S. has been steadily increasing, even though the growth rate of 1.5 percent has been relatively low over the last 20 years. Will AI-induced productivity growth simply come on top of this underlying productivity growth? Will it reduce some of the underlying productivity growth because we are shifting to a new paradigm? Or will AI change the ability to innovate and not only result in a level shift of productivity, but a permanent change in the trend growth rate? We do not know.
Not only is it uncertain by how much AI will eventually impact productivity, but it is also uncertain how fast its impact will show up in aggregate statistics. Consider again the two high-growth episodes in the U.S. economy — the late 1950s and the late 1990s — when average annual labor productivity growth was around 3 percent. There is no obvious single cause for the early high-growth period, though one reasonable story attributes it to the release of pent-up innovations in the U.S. consumer goods sector after being held back by low demand in the Great Depression and during World War II. The second high-growth period, however, is usually attributed to the widespread application of IT advances.
In either case, it took 10 to 20 years before the initial innovations resulted in widespread applications that showed up in aggregate labor productivity. I now illustrate the implications of delayed adoption for aggregate labor productivity using a simple diffusion model that has been applied in a variety of settings, including the spread of pandemics.
Think of the economy as chugging along at 1.5 percent labor productivity growth, and then AI appears. Assume that AI eventually increases labor productivity for a part of the labor force relative to the baseline productivity path, but that the application of AI slowly diffuses to that sector.
The two important parameters discussed above are the effective share of employment eventually affected by AI and by how much AI increases labor efficiency in the sector. We'll assume that the share affected by AI is 25 percent and that labor efficiency increases by a factor of 1.4. Thus, eventually average labor productivity will increase 10 percent relative to the baseline path, somewhere in the middle of the three studies noted above. This is the solid blue line relative to the purple line in Figure 2a. I would note that the implied AI-specific productivity improvement factor of 1.4 is higher than the average from currently available studies.
Now suppose that the application of AI gradually diffuses through the economy. The diffusion is such that the rate at which the share of AI adopters is increasing is proportional to the share of those who have not yet adopted AI. Thus, the growth rate starts out high and then declines over time. But initially there is only a very small share of AI adopters, so the base to which the high growth rate applies is small, and the aggregate impact is small.
Over time, as the share of AI adopters is increasing, the impact of new AI adopters is also increasing, and the aggregate growth rate is increasing until it reaches its peak when about half of potential AI adopters have adopted. From then on, the declining growth rate dominates, and aggregate productivity is declining. The solid blue line in Figure 2b plots the share of potential AI adopters over time. I assume that half of the potential improvements have taken place after 20 years. This is in line with the two growth episodes just discussed.
The solid blue line in Figure 2c plots the implied instantaneous aggregate labor productivity growth rate. Average labor productivity growth picks up noticeably after 10 years and reaches a peak of close to 2.7 percent when the AI-improved share of employment is 12.5 percent. The symmetric 10-year moving average of the growth rate (the dashed blue line) reaches a peak of about 2.3 percent, still below the two historical peak growth episodes.
Now suppose that AI spreads faster in the economy. The green lines in the preceding figures represent a diffusion path where half of the potential AI improvements take place within 10 years, rather than 20 years. As you can see, the paths just shift to the left by 10 years — that is, peak growth now occurs after 10 years — but the magnitudes of the effects are the same.
We should acknowledge that there is a huge amount of uncertainty about the impact of AI on the timing and magnitude of labor productivity changes. No matter how many anecdotes we have on particular AI applications, we have to see it in aggregate data to matter for monetary policy. To paraphrase Duke Ellington, it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing in aggregate labor productivity.
If there are no employment effects, labor productivity growth represents potential output growth or trend output growth. The usual position of monetary policy is to respond to deviations of output from potential output, not to changes in potential output, at least for as long as inflation is close to target. For example, productivity and output growth accelerated in the late 1990s. In response, the Federal Open Market Committee under then-chairman Alan Greenspan considered this to reflect an increase in trend growth rate of potential output and therefore did not counter with raising interest rates. 5
At the same time, standard economic theory predicts that interest rates are related to expected consumption growth. If expected consumption growth increases — that is, future consumption increases more relative to current consumption — then interest rates should increase so that households willingly postpone consumption. Consumption is likely to increase with increased potential output, thus a higher growth rate of potential output should be associated with a higher equilibrium interest rate.
In a standard economic growth model, short-run interest rates move with the output growth rate. For a reasonable calibration of the model, the interest rate changes one for one with the growth rate. Thus, a 1 percentage point increase of the growth rate would be associated with a 1 percentage point increase of the short-run interest rate. But note that, for the baseline case when half of potential AI applications are adopted after 20 years, the growth rate only starts to increase noticeably after 15 years in the baseline setup, as seen in Figure 2c. Nevertheless, the short-run interest rate should increase 1.2 percentage points once the growth rate reaches its peak.
Long-term interest rates move less, but earlier. In Figure 2d, we plot the change for a long-term interest rate with a 10-year horizon (that is, the average of 10-year future short rates). While the short rate only moves with the contemporaneous growth rate, the long rate moves in anticipation of future growth rates and increases by 0.5 percentage points after 12 years. For the alternative case when AI adoption proceeds faster, the short rate increases earlier, and the 10-year interest rate increases immediately by 0.5 percentage points. We can think of the long rate providing an advance signal on future short rates.
In the context of recent policy discussions, the short rate associated with trend output/consumption growth represents r*, the interest rate that would be appropriate when there are no deviations of output from potential and inflation is at its target. 6 Thus, a persistent increase of r* due to an increase of trend output growth should lead to persistently higher policy rates. This argument was also made in the late 1990s in response to the perceived increase in trend output growth, but it did not carry the day then. This may simply reflect the difficulty for monetary policymakers to infer changes in underlying trends in real time when data are constantly revised, and the economy is buffeted by large temporary shocks.
Andreas Hornstein is a senior advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Productivity growth (even for annual data) is highly volatile. To reveal any long-term trends, we therefore plot 10-year moving averages of the annual growth rates.
For the names of some of these studies, see the papers I'm reviewing in this article.
See the 2023 working papers " The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence From GitHub Copilot " by Sida Peng, Eirini Kalliamvakou, Peter Cihon and Mert Demirer and " Generative AI at Work " by Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li and Lindsay Raymond.
See the 2023 working paper " GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models " by Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin and Daniel Rock.
For a description of monetary policy in the late 1990s, see the 2002 paper " The Phases of U.S. Monetary Policy: 1987 to 2001 " by Marvin Goodfriend and the 2010 paper " FOMC Learning and Productivity Growth (1985-2003): A Reading of the Record " by Richard Anderson and Kevin Kliesen.
See the 2023 article " The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model " by Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes.
To cite this Economic Brief, please use the following format: Hornstein, Andreas. (June 2024) "Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI." Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief , No. 24-19.
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There’s a widespread understanding that managing corporate culture is key to business success. Yet few companies articulate their culture in such a way that the words become an organizational reality that molds employee behavior as intended.
All too often a culture is described as a set of anodyne norms, principles, or values, which do not offer decision-makers guidance on how to make difficult choices when faced with conflicting but equally defensible courses of action.
The trick to making a desired culture come alive is to debate and articulate it using dilemmas. If you identify the tough dilemmas your employees routinely face and clearly state how they should be resolved—“In this company, when we come across this dilemma, we turn left”—then your desired culture will take root and influence the behavior of the team.
To develop a culture that works, follow six rules: Ground your culture in the dilemmas you are likely to confront, dilemma-test your values, communicate your values in colorful terms, hire people who fit, let culture drive strategy, and know when to pull back from a value statement.
Start by thinking about the dilemmas your people will face.
The problem.
There’s a widespread understanding that managing corporate culture is key to business success. Yet few companies articulate their corporate culture in such a way that the words become an organizational reality that molds employee behavior as intended.
How to fix it.
Follow six rules: Ground your culture in the dilemmas you are likely to confront, dilemma-test your values, communicate your values in colorful terms, hire people who fit, let culture drive strategy, and know when to pull back from a value.
At the beginning of my career, I worked for the health-care-software specialist HBOC. One day, a woman from human resources came into the cafeteria with a roll of tape and began sticking posters on the walls. They proclaimed in royal blue the company’s values: “Transparency, Respect, Integrity, Honesty.” The next day we received wallet-sized plastic cards with the same words and were asked to memorize them so that we could incorporate them into our actions. The following year, when management was indicted on 17 counts of conspiracy and fraud, we learned what the company’s values really were.
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McCormick Center for Early Childhood Leadership at National Louis University
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This post is part of Lifehacker’s “Living With AI” series: We investigate the current state of AI, walk through how it can be useful (and how it can’t), and evaluate where this revolutionary tech is heading next. Read more here .
You wouldn’t be blamed for thinking AI really kicked off in the past couple years. But AI has been a long time in the making, including most of the 20th century. It's difficult to pick up a phone or laptop today without seeing some type of AI feature, but that's only because of working going back nearly one hundred years.
Of course, people have been wondering if we could make machines that think for as long as we’ve had machines. The modern concept came from Alan Turing, a renowned mathematician well known for his work in deciphering Nazi Germany’s “unbreakable” code produced by their Enigma machine during World War II. As the New York Times highlights , Turing essentially predicted what the computer could—and would—become, imagining it as “one machine for all possible tasks.”
But it was what Turing wrote in “Computing Machinery and Intelligence” that changed things forever: The computer scientist posed the question, “Can machines think?” but also argued this framing was the wrong approach to take. Instead, he proposed a thought-experiment called “ The Imitation Game .” Imagine you have three people: a man (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator, separated into three rooms. The interrogator’s goal is to determine which player is the man and which is the woman using only text-based communication. If both players were truthful in their answers, it’s not such a difficult task. But if one or both decides to lie, it becomes much more challenging.
But the point of the Imitation Game isn’t to test a human’s deduction ability. Rather, Turing asks you to imagine a machine taking the place of player A or B. Could the machine effectively trick the interrogator into thinking it was human?
Turing was the most influential spark for the concept of AI, but it was Frank Rosenblatt who actually kick-started the technology’s practice , even if he never saw it come to fruition. Rosenblatt created the “Perceptron,” a computer modeled after how neurons work in the brain, with the ability to teach itself new skills. The computer has a single layer neural network, and it works like this: You have the machine make a prediction about something—say, whether a punch card is marked on the left or the right. If the computer is wrong, it adjusts to be more accurate. Over thousands or even millions of attempts, it “learns” the right answers instead of having to predict them.
That design is based on neurons: You have an input, such as a piece of information you want the computer to recognize. The neuron takes the data and, based on its previous knowledge, produces a corresponding output. If that output is wrong, you tell the computer, and adjust the “weight” of the neuron to produce an outcome you hope is closer to the desired output. Over time, you find the right weight, and the computer will have successfully “learned.”
Unfortunately, despite some promising attempts, the Perceptron simply couldn’t follow through on Rosenblatt’s theories and claims, and interest in both it and the practice of artificial intelligence dried up. As we know today, however, Rosenblatt wasn’t wrong: His machine was just too simple. The perceptron’s neural network had only one layer, which isn’t enough to enable machine learning on any meaningful level.
That’s what Geoffrey Hinton discovered in the 1980s : Where Turing posited the idea, and Rosenblatt created the first machines, Hinton pushed AI into its current iteration by theorizing that nature had cracked neural network-based AI already in the human brain. He and other researchers, like Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio, proved that neural networks built upon multiple layers and a huge number of connections can enable machine learning.
Through the 1990s and 2000s, researchers would slowly prove neural networks’ potential. LeCun, for example, created a neural net that could recognize handwritten characters . But it was still slow going: While the theories were right on the money, computers weren’t powerful enough to handle the amount of data necessary to see AI’s full potential. Moore’s Law finds a way, of course, and around 2012 , both hardware and data sets had advanced to the point that machine learning took off : Suddenly, researchers could train neural nets to do things they never could before, and we started to see AI in action in everything from smart assistants to self-driving cars.
And then, in late 2022, ChatGPT blew up , showing both professionals, enthusiasts, and the general public what AI could really do, and we’ve been on a wild ride ever since. We don’t know what the future of AI actually has in store: All we can do is look at how far the tech has come, what we can do with it now, and imagine where we go from here.
To that end, take a look through our collection of articles all about living with AI . We define AI terms you need to know , walk you through building AI tools without needing to know how to code , talk about how to use AI responsibly for work , and discuss the ethics of generating AI art .
COMMENTS
Formulating research objectives has the following five steps, which could help researchers develop a clear objective: 8. Identify the research problem. Review past studies on subjects similar to your problem statement, that is, studies that use similar methods, variables, etc.
Research objectives describe what your research project intends to accomplish. They should guide every step of the research process, including how you collect data, build your argument, and develop your conclusions. Your research objectives may evolve slightly as your research progresses, but they should always line up with the research carried ...
Research briefs are the cornerstone of successful projects. They set the tone, define objectives, and guide researchers toward meaningful outcomes. A well-structured brief not only saves time but also ensures the collected data aligns with the project goals. How to Write a Research Brief: Understanding Your Objective. Defining Clear Research Goals
2. Be clear on your objectives. This is one of the most important parts of your brief to convey to the reader what you want out of the project and ensure you get results which deliver. Projects should have around three or four overarching aims which set out what the project ultimately wants to achieve.
Research Objectives. Research objectives refer to the specific goals or aims of a research study. They provide a clear and concise description of what the researcher hopes to achieve by conducting the research.The objectives are typically based on the research questions and hypotheses formulated at the beginning of the study and are used to guide the research process.
Research Aims: Examples. True to the name, research aims usually start with the wording "this research aims to…", "this research seeks to…", and so on. For example: "This research aims to explore employee experiences of digital transformation in retail HR.". "This study sets out to assess the interaction between student ...
A research objective is defined as a clear and concise statement of the specific goals and aims of a research study. It outlines what the researcher intends to accomplish and what they hope to learn or discover through their research. Research objectives are crucial for guiding the research process and ensuring that the study stays focused and ...
The objectives provide a clear direction and purpose for the study, guiding the researcher in their data collection and analysis. Here are some tips on how to write effective research objective: 1. Be clear and specific. Research objective should be written in a clear and specific manner.
Writing an effective research brief A step-by-step guide for success Writing a research brief that is effective and yields results isn't always easy. But time invested upfront will pay dividends for the life of your project, and ultimately, might be the difference between reaching your objectives or falling short.
Here's what your qualitative research brief should include: Background. Provide a summary of the primary business the client is in, and clearly explain why the business exists, what its mission ...
Research objectives are how researchers ensure that their study has direction and makes a significant contribution to growing an industry or niche. Research objectives provide a clear and concise statement of what the researcher wants to find out. As a researcher, you need to clearly outline and define research objectives to guide the research ...
A research aim is a broad statement indicating the general purpose of your research project. It should appear in your introduction at the end of your problem statement, before your research objectives. Research objectives are more specific than your research aim. They indicate the specific ways you'll address the overarching aim.
Summary. One of the most important aspects of a thesis, dissertation or research paper is the correct formulation of the aims and objectives. This is because your aims and objectives will establish the scope, depth and direction that your research will ultimately take. An effective set of aims and objectives will give your research focus and ...
Answer: Research objectives describe concisely what the research is trying to achieve. They summarize the accomplishments a researcher wishes to achieve through the project and provides direction to the study. A research objective must be achievable, i.e., it must be framed keeping in mind the available time, infrastructure required for ...
Here are three simple steps that you can follow to identify and write your research objectives: 1. Pinpoint the major focus of your research. The first step to writing your research objectives is to pinpoint the major focus of your research project. In this step, make sure to clearly describe what you aim to achieve through your research.
Here is an explanation of each step: 1. Title and Abstract. Choose a concise and descriptive title that reflects the essence of your research. Write an abstract summarizing your research question, objectives, methodology, and expected outcomes. It should provide a brief overview of your proposal. 2.
1. Context. Provide sufficient background information on your organisation and the context surrounding the proposed research project. 2. The 'why' before 'how'. Include an understanding of ' why ' the research is needed and what are the results going to be used for. This is one of the most important elements of a research brief.
The Structure of a Research Summary typically include: Introduction: This section provides a brief background of the research problem or question, explains the purpose of the study, and outlines the research objectives. Methodology: This section explains the research design, methods, and procedures used to conduct the study.
Market: Canada. Sample size: 200 - 1000. Demographics: Household income of $150k and above a year. Option 2: Markets: Malaysia (priority), Thailand, Singapore. Sample size: N=200 (Product Variant Selector) + N=500 (Conjoint) Demographics: 16 - 50 years old. National representation: Age, gender and location.
An in-depth analysis of information creates space for generating new questions, concepts and understandings. The main objective of research is to explore the unknown and unlock new possibilities. It's an essential component of success. Over the years, businesses have started emphasizing the need for research.
The first question asks for a ready-made solution, and is not focused or researchable. The second question is a clearer comparative question, but note that it may not be practically feasible. For a smaller research project or thesis, it could be narrowed down further to focus on the effectiveness of drunk driving laws in just one or two countries.
A research brief is a statement that comes from the sponsor, who sets the objectives and background. This is to enable the researcher to plan the research and conduct an appropriate study on it. Research Brief can be as good as a market research study and is very important to a researcher. It provides good insight and influences on the choice ...
Research objective. A research objective, also known as a goal or an objective, is a sentence or question that summarizes the purpose of your study or test. In other words, it's an idea you want to understand deeper by performing research. Objectives should be the driving force behind every task you assign and each question that you ask.
The study objective was to investigate the potential of quantitative measures of pulmonary inflammation by [18 F]Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) as a surrogate marker of inflammation in COPD. ... The purpose of the research and brief summary of main findings. The degree of and changes in ...
The study's specific objectives encompassed the analysis of the utilization patterns of theories in LIS research conducted in Tanzania, the identification of predominant theories, the highlighting of specific areas within LIS research where theories have been extensively applied, and the assessment of the level of integration of theories into ...
Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI. By Andreas Hornstein. Economic Brief. June 2024, No. 24-19. AI is holding out the prospect of substantial productivity improvements. While the potential of AI may be large, it is uncertain how much of that potential will be realized and how fast it will occur. Recent estimates of the medium-term AI ...
Objective: There is inadequate evidence regarding the symptom profile of people who have posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) over time. The goal of this study was to determine the consistency of symptoms in people with PTSD over successive assessments. Method: The sample comprised military personnel who participated in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers ...
Summary. There's a widespread understanding that managing corporate culture is key to business success. Yet few companies articulate their culture in such a way that the words become an ...
Need the password? ExceleRate™ Illinois quality specialists and consultants, please contact Barb Volpe to receive access to the ExceleRate resources.. Aim4Excellence™ facilitators, please contact Lorena Rodriquez to receive access to the Aim4Excellence facilitator resources.
Turing was the most influential spark for the concept of AI, but it was Frank Rosenblatt who actually kick-started the technology's practice, even if he never saw it come to fruition. Rosenblatt ...