hypothesis statement of product

• Product Management

How to Generate and Validate Product Hypotheses

What is a product hypothesis.

A hypothesis is a testable statement that predicts the relationship between two or more variables. In product development, we generate hypotheses to validate assumptions about customer behavior, market needs, or the potential impact of product changes. These experimental efforts help us refine the user experience and get closer to finding a product-market fit.

Product hypotheses are a key element of data-driven product development and decision-making. Testing them enables us to solve problems more efficiently and remove our own biases from the solutions we put forward.

Here’s an example: ‘If we improve the page load speed on our website (variable 1), then we will increase the number of signups by 15% (variable 2).’ So if we improve the page load speed, and the number of signups increases, then our hypothesis has been proven. If the number did not increase significantly (or not at all), then our hypothesis has been disproven.

In general, product managers are constantly creating and testing hypotheses. But in the context of new product development , hypothesis generation/testing occurs during the validation stage, right after idea screening .

Now before we go any further, let’s get one thing straight: What’s the difference between an idea and a hypothesis?

Idea vs hypothesis

Innovation expert Michael Schrage makes this distinction between hypotheses and ideas – unlike an idea, a hypothesis comes with built-in accountability. “But what’s the accountability for a good idea?” Schrage asks. “The fact that a lot of people think it’s a good idea? That’s a popularity contest.” So, not only should a hypothesis be tested, but by its very nature, it can be tested.

At Railsware, we’ve built our product development services on the careful selection, prioritization, and validation of ideas. Here’s how we distinguish between ideas and hypotheses:

Idea: A creative suggestion about how we might exploit a gap in the market, add value to an existing product, or bring attention to our product. Crucially, an idea is just a thought. It can form the basis of a hypothesis but it is not necessarily expected to be proven or disproven.

• We should get an interview with the CEO of our company published on TechCrunch.
• Why don’t we redesign our website?
• The Coupler.io team should create video tutorials on how to export data from different apps, and publish them on YouTube.
• Why not add a new ‘email templates’ feature to our Mailtrap product?

Hypothesis: A way of framing an idea or assumption so that it is testable, specific, and aligns with our wider product/team/organizational goals.

Examples: 

• If we add a new ‘email templates’ feature to Mailtrap, we’ll see an increase in active usage of our email-sending API.
• Creating relevant video tutorials and uploading them to YouTube will lead to an increase in Coupler.io signups.
• If we publish an interview with our CEO on TechCrunch, 500 people will visit our website and 10 of them will install our product.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that not all hypotheses require testing . Sometimes, the process of creating hypotheses is just an exercise in critical thinking. And the simple act of analyzing your statement tells whether you should run an experiment or not. Remember: testing isn’t mandatory, but your hypotheses should always be inherently testable.

Let’s consider the TechCrunch article example again. In that hypothesis, we expect 500 readers to visit our product website, and a 2% conversion rate of those unique visitors to product users i.e. 10 people. But is that marginal increase worth all the effort? Conducting an interview with our CEO, creating the content, and collaborating with the TechCrunch content team – all of these tasks take time (and money) to execute. And by formulating that hypothesis, we can clearly see that in this case, the drawbacks (efforts) outweigh the benefits. So, no need to test it.

In a similar vein, a hypothesis statement can be a tool to prioritize your activities based on impact. We typically use the following criteria:

• The quality of impact
• The size of the impact
• The probability of impact

This lets us organize our efforts according to their potential outcomes – not the coolness of the idea, its popularity among the team, etc.

Now that we’ve established what a product hypothesis is, let’s discuss how to create one.

Start with a problem statement

Before you jump into product hypothesis generation, we highly recommend formulating a problem statement. This is a short, concise description of the issue you are trying to solve. It helps teams stay on track as they formalize the hypothesis and design the product experiments. It can also be shared with stakeholders to ensure that everyone is on the same page.

The statement can be worded however you like, as long as it’s actionable, specific, and based on data-driven insights or research. It should clearly outline the problem or opportunity you want to address.

Here’s an example: Our bounce rate is high (more than 90%) and we are struggling to convert website visitors into actual users. How might we improve site performance to boost our conversion rate?

How to generate product hypotheses

Now let’s explore some common, everyday scenarios that lead to product hypothesis generation. For our teams here at Railsware, it’s when:

• There’s a problem with an unclear root cause e.g. a sudden drop in one part of the onboarding funnel. We identify these issues by checking our product metrics or reviewing customer complaints.
• We are running ideation sessions on how to reach our goals (increase MRR, increase the number of users invited to an account, etc.)
• We are exploring growth opportunities e.g. changing a pricing plan, making product improvements , breaking into a new market.
• We receive customer feedback. For example, some users have complained about difficulties setting up a workspace within the product. So, we build a hypothesis on how to help them with the setup.

BRIDGES framework for ideation

When we are tackling a complex problem or looking for ways to grow the product, our teams use BRIDGeS – a robust decision-making and ideation framework. BRIDGeS makes our product discovery sessions more efficient. It lets us dive deep into the context of our problem so that we can develop targeted solutions worthy of testing.

Between 2-8 stakeholders take part in a BRIDGeS session. The ideation sessions are usually led by a product manager and can include other subject matter experts such as developers, designers, data analysts, or marketing specialists. You can use a virtual whiteboard such as Figjam or Miro (see our Figma template ) to record each colored note.

In the first half of a BRIDGeS session, participants examine the Benefits, Risks, Issues, and Goals of their subject in the ‘Problem Space.’ A subject is anything that is being described or dealt with; for instance, Coupler.io’s growth opportunities. Benefits are the value that a future solution can bring, Risks are potential issues they might face, Issues are their existing problems, and Goals are what the subject hopes to gain from the future solution. Each descriptor should have a designated color.

After we have broken down the problem using each of these descriptors, we move into the Solution Space. This is where we develop solution variations based on all of the benefits/risks/issues identified in the Problem Space (see the Uber case study for an in-depth example).

In the Solution Space, we start prioritizing those solutions and deciding which ones are worthy of further exploration outside of the framework – via product hypothesis formulation and testing, for example. At the very least, after the session, we will have a list of epics and nested tasks ready to add to our product roadmap.

How to write a product hypothesis statement

Across organizations, product hypothesis statements might vary in their subject, tone, and precise wording. But some elements never change. As we mentioned earlier, a hypothesis statement must always have two or more variables and a connecting factor.

1. Identify variables

Since these components form the bulk of a hypothesis statement, let’s start with a brief definition.

First of all, variables in a hypothesis statement can be split into two camps: dependent and independent. Without getting too theoretical, we can describe the independent variable as the cause, and the dependent variable as the effect . So in the Mailtrap example we mentioned earlier, the ‘add email templates feature’ is the cause i.e. the element we want to manipulate. Meanwhile, ‘increased usage of email sending API’ is the effect i.e the element we will observe.

Independent variables can be any change you plan to make to your product. For example, tweaking some landing page copy, adding a chatbot to the homepage, or enhancing the search bar filter functionality.

Dependent variables are usually metrics. Here are a few that we often test in product development:

• Number of sign-ups
• Number of purchases
• Activation rate (activation signals differ from product to product)
• Number of specific plans purchased
• Feature usage (API activation, for example)
• Number of active users

Bear in mind that your concept or desired change can be measured with different metrics. Make sure that your variables are well-defined, and be deliberate in how you measure your concepts so that there’s no room for misinterpretation or ambiguity.

For example, in the hypothesis ‘Users drop off because they find it hard to set up a project’ variables are poorly defined. Phrases like ‘drop off’ and ‘hard to set up’ are too vague. A much better way of saying it would be: If project automation rules are pre-defined (email sequence to responsible, scheduled tickets creation), we’ll see a decrease in churn. In this example, it’s clear which dependent variable has been chosen and why.

And remember, when product managers focus on delighting users and building something of value, it’s easier to market and monetize it. That’s why at Railsware, our product hypotheses often focus on how to increase the usage of a feature or product. If users love our product(s) and know how to leverage its benefits, we can spend less time worrying about how to improve conversion rates or actively grow our revenue, and more time enhancing the user experience and nurturing our audience.

2. Make the connection

The relationship between variables should be clear and logical. If it’s not, then it doesn’t matter how well-chosen your variables are – your test results won’t be reliable.

To demonstrate this point, let’s explore a previous example again: page load speed and signups.

Through prior research, you might already know that conversion rates are 3x higher for sites that load in 1 second compared to sites that take 5 seconds to load. Since there appears to be a strong connection between load speed and signups in general, you might want to see if this is also true for your product.

Here are some common pitfalls to avoid when defining the relationship between two or more variables:

Relationship is weak. Let’s say you hypothesize that an increase in website traffic will lead to an increase in sign-ups. This is a weak connection since website visitors aren’t necessarily motivated to use your product; there are more steps involved. A better example is ‘If we change the CTA on the pricing page, then the number of signups will increase.’ This connection is much stronger and more direct.

Relationship is far-fetched. This often happens when one of the variables is founded on a vanity metric. For example, increasing the number of social media subscribers will lead to an increase in sign-ups. However, there’s no particular reason why a social media follower would be interested in using your product. Oftentimes, it’s simply your social media content that appeals to them (and your audience isn’t interested in a product).

Variables are co-dependent. Variables should always be isolated from one another. Let’s say we removed the option “Register with Google” from our app. In this case, we can expect fewer users with Google workspace accounts to register. Obviously, it’s because there’s a direct dependency between variables (no registration with Google→no users with Google workspace accounts).

3. Set validation criteria

First, build some confirmation criteria into your statement . Think in terms of percentages (e.g. increase/decrease by 5%) and choose a relevant product metric to track e.g. activation rate if your hypothesis relates to onboarding. Consider that you don’t always have to hit the bullseye for your hypothesis to be considered valid. Perhaps a 3% increase is just as acceptable as a 5% one. And it still proves that a connection between your variables exists.

Secondly, you should also make sure that your hypothesis statement is realistic . Let’s say you have a hypothesis that ‘If we show users a banner with our new feature, then feature usage will increase by 10%.’ A few questions to ask yourself are: Is 10% a reasonable increase, based on your current feature usage data? Do you have the resources to create the tests (experimenting with multiple variations, distributing on different channels: in-app, emails, blog posts)?

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

In statistical research, there are two ways of stating a hypothesis: null or alternative. But this scientific method has its place in hypothesis-driven development too…

Alternative hypothesis: A statement that you intend to prove as being true by running an experiment and analyzing the results. Hint: it’s the same as the other hypothesis examples we’ve described so far.

Example: If we change the landing page copy, then the number of signups will increase.

Null hypothesis: A statement you want to disprove by running an experiment and analyzing the results. It predicts that your new feature or change to the user experience will not have the desired effect.

Example: The number of signups will not increase if we make a change to the landing page copy.

What’s the point? Well, let’s consider the phrase ‘innocent until proven guilty’ as a version of a null hypothesis. We don’t assume that there is any relationship between the ‘defendant’ and the ‘crime’ until we have proof. So, we run a test, gather data, and analyze our findings — which gives us enough proof to reject the null hypothesis and validate the alternative. All of this helps us to have more confidence in our results.

Now that you have generated your hypotheses, and created statements, it’s time to prepare your list for testing.

Prioritizing hypotheses for testing

Not all hypotheses are created equal. Some will be essential to your immediate goal of growing the product e.g. adding a new data destination for Coupler.io. Others will be based on nice-to-haves or small fixes e.g. updating graphics on the website homepage.

Prioritization helps us focus on the most impactful solutions as we are building a product roadmap or narrowing down the backlog . To determine which hypotheses are the most critical, we use the MoSCoW framework. It allows us to assign a level of urgency and importance to each product hypothesis so we can filter the best 3-5 for testing.

MoSCoW is an acronym for Must-have, Should-have, Could-have, and Won’t-have. Here’s a breakdown:

• Must-have – hypotheses that must be tested, because they are strongly linked to our immediate project goals.
• Should-have – hypotheses that are closely related to our immediate project goals, but aren’t the top priority.
• Could-have – hypotheses of nice-to-haves that can wait until later for testing. 
• Won’t-have – low-priority hypotheses that we may or may not test later on when we have more time.

How to test product hypotheses

Once you have selected a hypothesis, it’s time to test it. This will involve running one or more product experiments in order to check the validity of your claim.

The tricky part is deciding what type of experiment to run, and how many. Ultimately, this all depends on the subject of your hypothesis – whether it’s a simple copy change or a whole new feature. For instance, it’s not necessary to create a clickable prototype for a landing page redesign. In that case, a user-wide update would do.

On that note, here are some of the approaches we take to hypothesis testing at Railsware:

A/B testing

A/B or split testing involves creating two or more different versions of a webpage/feature/functionality and collecting information about how users respond to them.

Let’s say you wanted to validate a hypothesis about the placement of a search bar on your application homepage. You could design an A/B test that shows two different versions of that search bar’s placement to your users (who have been split equally into two camps: a control group and a variant group). Then, you would choose the best option based on user data. A/B tests are suitable for testing responses to user experience changes, especially if you have more than one solution to test.

Prototyping

When it comes to testing a new product design, prototyping is the method of choice for many Lean startups and organizations. It’s a cost-effective way of collecting feedback from users, fast, and it’s possible to create prototypes of individual features too. You may take this approach to hypothesis testing if you are working on rolling out a significant new change e.g adding a brand-new feature, redesigning some aspect of the user flow, etc. To control costs at this point in the new product development process , choose the right tools — think Figma for clickable walkthroughs or no-code platforms like Bubble.

Deliveroo feature prototype example

Let’s look at how feature prototyping worked for the food delivery app, Deliveroo, when their product team wanted to ‘explore personalized recommendations, better filtering and improved search’ in 2018. To begin, they created a prototype of the customer discovery feature using web design application, Framer.

One of the most important aspects of this feature prototype was that it contained live data — real restaurants, real locations. For test users, this made the hypothetical feature feel more authentic. They were seeing listings and recommendations for real restaurants in their area, which helped immerse them in the user experience, and generate more honest and specific feedback. Deliveroo was then able to implement this feedback in subsequent iterations.

Asking your users

Interviewing customers is an excellent way to validate product hypotheses. It’s a form of qualitative testing that, in our experience, produces better insights than user surveys or general user research. Sessions are typically run by product managers and involve asking  in-depth interview questions  to one customer at a time. They can be conducted in person or online (through a virtual call center , for instance) and last anywhere between 30 minutes to 1 hour.

Although CustDev interviews may require more effort to execute than other tests (the process of finding participants, devising questions, organizing interviews, and honing interview skills can be time-consuming), it’s still a highly rewarding approach. You can quickly validate assumptions by asking customers about their pain points, concerns, habits, processes they follow, and analyzing how your solution fits into all of that.

Wizard of Oz

The Wizard of Oz approach is suitable for gauging user interest in new features or functionalities. It’s done by creating a prototype of a fake or future feature and monitoring how your customers or test users interact with it.

For example, you might have a hypothesis that your number of active users will increase by 15% if you introduce a new feature. So, you design a new bare-bones page or simple button that invites users to access it. But when they click on the button, a pop-up appears with a message such as ‘coming soon.’

By measuring the frequency of those clicks, you could learn a lot about the demand for this new feature/functionality. However, while these tests can deliver fast results, they carry the risk of backfiring. Some customers may find fake features misleading, making them less likely to engage with your product in the future.

User-wide updates

One of the speediest ways to test your hypothesis is by rolling out an update for all users. It can take less time and effort to set up than other tests (depending on how big of an update it is). But due to the risk involved, you should stick to only performing these kinds of tests on small-scale hypotheses. Our teams only take this approach when we are almost certain that our hypothesis is valid.

For example, we once had an assumption that the name of one of Mailtrap ’s entities was the root cause of a low activation rate. Being an active Mailtrap customer meant that you were regularly sending test emails to a place called ‘Demo Inbox.’ We hypothesized that the name was confusing (the word ‘demo’ implied it was not the main inbox) and this was preventing new users from engaging with their accounts. So, we updated the page, changed the name to ‘My Inbox’ and added some ‘to-do’ steps for new users. We saw an increase in our activation rate almost immediately, validating our hypothesis.

Feature flags

Creating feature flags involves only releasing a new feature to a particular subset or small percentage of users. These features come with a built-in kill switch; a piece of code that can be executed or skipped, depending on who’s interacting with your product.

Since you are only showing this new feature to a selected group, feature flags are an especially low-risk method of testing your product hypothesis (compared to Wizard of Oz, for example, where you have much less control). However, they are also a little bit more complex to execute than the others — you will need to have an actual coded product for starters, as well as some technical knowledge, in order to add the modifiers ( only when… ) to your new coded feature.

Let’s revisit the landing page copy example again, this time in the context of testing.

So, for the hypothesis ‘If we change the landing page copy, then the number of signups will increase,’ there are several options for experimentation. We could share the copy with a small sample of our users, or even release a user-wide update. But A/B testing is probably the best fit for this task. Depending on our budget and goal, we could test several different pieces of copy, such as:

• The current landing page copy
• Copy that we paid a marketing agency 10 grand for
• Generic copy we wrote ourselves, or removing most of the original copy – just to see how making even a small change might affect our numbers.

Remember, every hypothesis test must have a reasonable endpoint. The exact length of the test will depend on the type of feature/functionality you are testing, the size of your user base, and how much data you need to gather. Just make sure that the experiment running time matches the hypothesis scope. For instance, there is no need to spend 8 weeks experimenting with a piece of landing page copy. That timeline is more appropriate for say, a Wizard of Oz feature.

Recording hypotheses statements and test results

Finally, it’s time to talk about where you will write down and keep track of your hypotheses. Creating a single source of truth will enable you to track all aspects of hypothesis generation and testing with ease.

At Railsware, our product managers create a document for each individual hypothesis, using tools such as Coda or Google Sheets. In that document, we record the hypothesis statement, as well as our plans, process, results, screenshots, product metrics, and assumptions.

We share this document with our team and stakeholders, to ensure transparency and invite feedback. It’s also a resource we can refer back to when we are discussing a new hypothesis — a place where we can quickly access information relating to a previous test.

Understanding test results and taking action

The other half of validating product hypotheses involves evaluating data and drawing reasonable conclusions based on what you find. We do so by analyzing our chosen product metric(s) and deciding whether there is enough data available to make a solid decision. If not, we may extend the test’s duration or run another one. Otherwise, we move forward. An experimental feature becomes a real feature, a chatbot gets implemented on the customer support page, and so on.

Something to keep in mind: the integrity of your data is tied to how well the test was executed, so here are a few points to consider when you are testing and analyzing results:

Gather and analyze data carefully. Ensure that your data is clean and up-to-date when running quantitative tests and tracking responses via analytics dashboards. If you are doing customer interviews, make sure to record the meetings (with consent) so that your notes will be as accurate as possible.

Conduct the right amount of product experiments. It can take more than one test to determine whether your hypothesis is valid or invalid. However, don’t waste too much time experimenting in the hopes of getting the result you want. Know when to accept the evidence and move on.

Choose the right audience segment. Don’t cast your net too wide. Be specific about who you want to collect data from prior to running the test. Otherwise, your test results will be misleading and you won’t learn anything new.

Watch out for bias. Avoid confirmation bias at all costs. Don’t make the mistake of including irrelevant data just because it bolsters your results. For example, if you are gathering data about how users are interacting with your product Monday-Friday, don’t include weekend data just because doing so would alter the data and ‘validate’ your hypothesis.

• Not all failed hypotheses should be treated as losses. Even if you didn’t get the outcome you were hoping for, you may still have improved your product. Let’s say you implemented SSO authentication for premium users, but unfortunately, your free users didn’t end up switching to premium plans. In this case, you still added value to the product by streamlining the login process for paying users.
• Yes, taking a hypothesis-driven approach to product development is important. But remember, you don’t have to test everything . Use common sense first. For example, if your website copy is confusing and doesn’t portray the value of the product, then you should still strive to replace it with better copy – regardless of how this affects your numbers in the short term.

Wrapping Up

The process of generating and validating product hypotheses is actually pretty straightforward once you’ve got the hang of it. All you need is a valid question or problem, a testable statement, and a method of validation. Sure, hypothesis-driven development requires more of a time commitment than just ‘giving it a go.’ But ultimately, it will help you tune the product to the wants and needs of your customers.

If you share our data-driven approach to product development and engineering, check out our services page to learn more about how we work with our clients!

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Product best practices

Product hypothesis - a guide to create meaningful hypotheses.

13 December, 2023

Growth Manager

Data-driven development is no different than a scientific experiment. You repeatedly form hypotheses, test them, and either implement (or reject) them based on the results. It’s a proven system that leads to better apps and happier users.

Let’s get started.

What is a product hypothesis?

A product hypothesis is an educated guess about how a change to a product will impact important metrics like revenue or user engagement. It's a testable statement that needs to be validated to determine its accuracy.

The most common format for product hypotheses is “If… than…”:

“If we increase the font size on our homepage, then more customers will convert.”

“If we reduce form fields from 5 to 3, then more users will complete the signup process.”

At UXCam, we believe in a data-driven approach to developing product features. Hypotheses provide an effective way to structure development and measure results so you can make informed decisions about how your product evolves over time.

Take PlaceMakers , for example.

PlaceMakers faced challenges with their app during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to supply chain shortages, stock levels were not being updated in real-time, causing customers to add unavailable products to their baskets. The team added a “Constrained Product” label, but this caused sales to plummet.

The team then turned to UXCam’s session replays and heatmaps to investigate, and hypothesized that their messaging for constrained products was too strong. The team redesigned the messaging with a more positive approach, and sales didn’t just recover—they doubled.

Types of product hypothesis

1. counter-hypothesis.

A counter-hypothesis is an alternative proposition that challenges the initial hypothesis. It’s used to test the robustness of the original hypothesis and make sure that the product development process considers all possible scenarios. 

For instance, if the original hypothesis is “Reducing the sign-up steps from 3 to 1 will increase sign-ups by 25% for new visitors after 1,000 visits to the sign-up page,” a counter-hypothesis could be “Reducing the sign-up steps will not significantly affect the sign-up rate.

2. Alternative hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis predicts an effect in the population. It’s the opposite of the null hypothesis, which states there’s no effect. 

For example, if the null hypothesis is “improving the page load speed on our mobile app will not affect the number of sign-ups,” the alternative hypothesis could be “improving the page load speed on our mobile app will increase the number of sign-ups by 15%.”

3. Second-order hypothesis

Second-order hypotheses are derived from the initial hypothesis and provide more specific predictions. 

For instance, “if the initial hypothesis is Improving the page load speed on our mobile app will increase the number of sign-ups,” a second-order hypothesis could be “Improving the page load speed on our mobile app will increase the number of sign-ups.”

Why is a product hypothesis important?

Guided product development.

A product hypothesis serves as a guiding light in the product development process. In the case of PlaceMakers, the product owner’s hypothesis that users would benefit from knowing the availability of items upfront before adding them to the basket helped their team focus on the most critical aspects of the product. It ensured that their efforts were directed towards features and improvements that have the potential to deliver the most value. 

Improved efficiency

Product hypotheses enable teams to solve problems more efficiently and remove biases from the solutions they put forward. By testing the hypothesis, PlaceMakers aimed to improve efficiency by addressing the issue of stock levels not being updated in real-time and customers adding unavailable products to their baskets.

Risk mitigation

By validating assumptions before building the product, teams can significantly reduce the risk of failure. This is particularly important in today’s fast-paced, highly competitive business environment, where the cost of failure can be high.

Validating assumptions through the hypothesis helped mitigate the risk of failure for PlaceMakers, as they were able to identify and solve the issue within a three-day period.

Data-driven decision-making

Product hypotheses are a key element of data-driven product development and decision-making. They provide a solid foundation for making informed, data-driven decisions, which can lead to more effective and successful product development strategies. 

The use of UXCam's Session Replay and Heatmaps features provided valuable data for data-driven decision-making, allowing PlaceMakers to quickly identify the problem and revise their messaging approach, leading to a doubling of sales.

How to create a great product hypothesis

Map important user flows

Identify any bottlenecks

Look for interesting behavior patterns

Turn patterns into hypotheses

Step 1 - Map important user flows

A good product hypothesis starts with an understanding of how users more around your product—what paths they take, what features they use, how often they return, etc. Before you can begin hypothesizing, it’s important to map out key user flows and journey maps that will help inform your hypothesis.

To do that, you’ll need to use a monitoring tool like UXCam .

UXCam integrates with your app through a lightweight SDK and automatically tracks every user interaction using tagless autocapture. That leads to tons of data on user behavior that you can use to form hypotheses.

At this stage, there are two specific visualizations that are especially helpful:

Funnels : Funnels are great for identifying drop off points and understanding which steps in a process, transition or journey lead to success.

In other words, you’re using these two tools to define key in-app flows and to measure the effectiveness of these flows (in that order).

Average time to conversion in highlights bar.

Step 2 - Identify any bottlenecks

Once you’ve set up monitoring and have started collecting data, you’ll start looking for bottlenecks—points along a key app flow that are tripping users up. At every stage in a funnel, there’s going to be dropoffs, but too many dropoffs can be a sign of a problem.

UXCam makes it easy to spot dropoffs by displaying them visually in every funnel. While there’s no benchmark for when you should be concerned, anything above a 10% dropoff could mean that further investigation is needed.

How do you investigate? By zooming in.

Step 3 - Look for interesting behavior patterns

At this stage, you’ve noticed a concerning trend and are zooming in on individual user experiences to humanize the trend and add important context.

The best way to do this is with session replay tools and event analytics. With a tool like UXCam, you can segment app data to isolate sessions that fit the trend. You can then investigate real user sessions by watching videos of their experience or by looking into their event logs. This helps you see exactly what caused the behavior you’re investigating.

For example, let’s say you notice that 20% of users who add an item to their cart leave the app about 5 minutes later. You can use session replay to look for the behavioral patterns that lead up to users leaving—such as how long they linger on a certain page or if they get stuck in the checkout process.

Step 4 - Turn patterns into hypotheses

Once you’ve checked out a number of user sessions, you can start to craft a product hypothesis.

This usually takes the form of an “If… then…” statement, like:

“If we optimize the checkout process for mobile users, then more customers will complete their purchase.”

These hypotheses can be tested using A/B testing and other user research tools to help you understand if your changes are having an impact on user behavior.

Product hypothesis emphasizes the importance of formulating clear and testable hypotheses when developing a product. It highlights that a well-defined hypothesis can guide the product development process, align stakeholders, and minimize uncertainty.

UXCam arms product teams with all the tools they need to form meaningful hypotheses that drive development in a positive direction. Put your app’s data to work and start optimizing today— sign up for a free account .

You might also be interested in these;

Product experimentation framework for mobile product teams

7 Best AB testing tools for mobile apps

A practical guide to product experimentation

5 Best product experimentation tools & software

How to use data to challenge the HiPPO

Ardent technophile exploring the world of mobile app product management at UXCam.

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Shipping Your Product in Iterations: A Guide to Hypothesis Testing

Glancing at the App Store on any phone will reveal that most installed apps have had updates released within the last week. Software products today are shipped in iterations to validate assumptions and hypotheses about what makes the product experience better for users.

By Kumara Raghavendra

Kumara has successfully delivered high-impact products in various industries ranging from eCommerce, healthcare, travel, and ride-hailing.

PREVIOUSLY AT

A look at the App Store on any phone will reveal that most installed apps have had updates released within the last week. A website visit after a few weeks might show some changes in the layout, user experience, or copy.

Today, software is shipped in iterations to validate assumptions and the product hypothesis about what makes a better user experience. At any given time, companies like booking.com (where I worked before) run hundreds of A/B tests on their sites for this very purpose.

For applications delivered over the internet, there is no need to decide on the look of a product 12-18 months in advance, and then build and eventually ship it. Instead, it is perfectly practical to release small changes that deliver value to users as they are being implemented, removing the need to make assumptions about user preferences and ideal solutions—for every assumption and hypothesis can be validated by designing a test to isolate the effect of each change.

In addition to delivering continuous value through improvements, this approach allows a product team to gather continuous feedback from users and then course-correct as needed. Creating and testing hypotheses every couple of weeks is a cheaper and easier way to build a course-correcting and iterative approach to creating product value .

What Is Hypothesis Testing in Product Management?

While shipping a feature to users, it is imperative to validate assumptions about design and features in order to understand their impact in the real world.

This validation is traditionally done through product hypothesis testing , during which the experimenter outlines a hypothesis for a change and then defines success. For instance, if a data product manager at Amazon has a hypothesis that showing bigger product images will raise conversion rates, then success is defined by higher conversion rates.

One of the key aspects of hypothesis testing is the isolation of different variables in the product experience in order to be able to attribute success (or failure) to the changes made. So, if our Amazon product manager had a further hypothesis that showing customer reviews right next to product images would improve conversion, it would not be possible to test both hypotheses at the same time. Doing so would result in failure to properly attribute causes and effects; therefore, the two changes must be isolated and tested individually.

Thus, product decisions on features should be backed by hypothesis testing to validate the performance of features.

Different Types of Hypothesis Testing

A/b testing.

One of the most common use cases to achieve hypothesis validation is randomized A/B testing, in which a change or feature is released at random to one-half of users (A) and withheld from the other half (B). Returning to the hypothesis of bigger product images improving conversion on Amazon, one-half of users will be shown the change, while the other half will see the website as it was before. The conversion will then be measured for each group (A and B) and compared. In case of a significant uplift in conversion for the group shown bigger product images, the conclusion would be that the original hypothesis was correct, and the change can be rolled out to all users.

Multivariate Testing

Ideally, each variable should be isolated and tested separately so as to conclusively attribute changes. However, such a sequential approach to testing can be very slow, especially when there are several versions to test. To continue with the example, in the hypothesis that bigger product images lead to higher conversion rates on Amazon, “bigger” is subjective, and several versions of “bigger” (e.g., 1.1x, 1.3x, and 1.5x) might need to be tested.

Instead of testing such cases sequentially, a multivariate test can be adopted, in which users are not split in half but into multiple variants. For instance, four groups (A, B, C, D) are made up of 25% of users each, where A-group users will not see any change, whereas those in variants B, C, and D will see images bigger by 1.1x, 1.3x, and 1.5x, respectively. In this test, multiple variants are simultaneously tested against the current version of the product in order to identify the best variant.

Before/After Testing

Sometimes, it is not possible to split the users in half (or into multiple variants) as there might be network effects in place. For example, if the test involves determining whether one logic for formulating surge prices on Uber is better than another, the drivers cannot be divided into different variants, as the logic takes into account the demand and supply mismatch of the entire city. In such cases, a test will have to compare the effects before the change and after the change in order to arrive at a conclusion.

However, the constraint here is the inability to isolate the effects of seasonality and externality that can differently affect the test and control periods. Suppose a change to the logic that determines surge pricing on Uber is made at time t , such that logic A is used before and logic B is used after. While the effects before and after time t can be compared, there is no guarantee that the effects are solely due to the change in logic. There could have been a difference in demand or other factors between the two time periods that resulted in a difference between the two.

Time-based On/Off Testing

The downsides of before/after testing can be overcome to a large extent by deploying time-based on/off testing, in which the change is introduced to all users for a certain period of time, turned off for an equal period of time, and then repeated for a longer duration.

For example, in the Uber use case, the change can be shown to drivers on Monday, withdrawn on Tuesday, shown again on Wednesday, and so on.

While this method doesn’t fully remove the effects of seasonality and externality, it does reduce them significantly, making such tests more robust.

Test Design

Choosing the right test for the use case at hand is an essential step in validating a hypothesis in the quickest and most robust way. Once the choice is made, the details of the test design can be outlined.

The test design is simply a coherent outline of:

• The hypothesis to be tested: Showing users bigger product images will lead them to purchase more products.
• Success metrics for the test: Customer conversion
• Decision-making criteria for the test: The test validates the hypothesis that users in the variant show a higher conversion rate than those in the control group.
• Metrics that need to be instrumented to learn from the test: Customer conversion, clicks on product images

In the case of the product hypothesis example that bigger product images will lead to improved conversion on Amazon, the success metric is conversion and the decision criteria is an improvement in conversion.

After the right test is chosen and designed, and the success criteria and metrics are identified, the results must be analyzed. To do that, some statistical concepts are necessary.

When running tests, it is important to ensure that the two variants picked for the test (A and B) do not have a bias with respect to the success metric. For instance, if the variant that sees the bigger images already has a higher conversion than the variant that doesn’t see the change, then the test is biased and can lead to wrong conclusions.

In order to ensure no bias in sampling, one can observe the mean and variance for the success metric before the change is introduced.

Significance and Power

Once a difference between the two variants is observed, it is important to conclude that the change observed is an actual effect and not a random one. This can be done by computing the significance of the change in the success metric.

In layman’s terms, significance measures the frequency with which the test shows that bigger images lead to higher conversion when they actually don’t. Power measures the frequency with which the test tells us that bigger images lead to higher conversion when they actually do.

So, tests need to have a high value of power and a low value of significance for more accurate results.

While an in-depth exploration of the statistical concepts involved in product management hypothesis testing is out of scope here, the following actions are recommended to enhance knowledge on this front:

• Data analysts and data engineers are usually adept at identifying the right test designs and can guide product managers, so make sure to utilize their expertise early in the process.
• There are numerous online courses on hypothesis testing, A/B testing, and related statistical concepts, such as Udemy , Udacity , and Coursera .
• Using tools such as Google’s Firebase and Optimizely can make the process easier thanks to a large amount of out-of-the-box capabilities for running the right tests.

Using Hypothesis Testing for Successful Product Management

In order to continuously deliver value to users, it is imperative to test various hypotheses, for the purpose of which several types of product hypothesis testing can be employed. Each hypothesis needs to have an accompanying test design, as described above, in order to conclusively validate or invalidate it.

This approach helps to quantify the value delivered by new changes and features, bring focus to the most valuable features, and deliver incremental iterations.

• How to Conduct Remote User Interviews [Infographic]
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• Building an AI Product? Maximize Value With an Implementation Framework

Further Reading on the Toptal Blog:

• Evolving UX: Experimental Product Design with a CXO
• How to Conduct Usability Testing in Six Steps
• 3 Product-led Growth Frameworks to Build Your Business
• A Product Designer’s Guide to Competitive Analysis

Understanding the basics

What is a product hypothesis.

A product hypothesis is an assumption that some improvement in the product will bring an increase in important metrics like revenue or product usage statistics.

What are the three required parts of a hypothesis?

The three required parts of a hypothesis are the assumption, the condition, and the prediction.

Why do we do A/B testing?

We do A/B testing to make sure that any improvement in the product increases our tracked metrics.

What is A/B testing used for?

A/B testing is used to check if our product improvements create the desired change in metrics.

What is A/B testing and multivariate testing?

A/B testing and multivariate testing are types of hypothesis testing. A/B testing checks how important metrics change with and without a single change in the product. Multivariate testing can track multiple variations of the same product improvement.

Kumara Raghavendra

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Member since August 6, 2019

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How to Write a Product Vision Statement

Reviewed by Bernie Maloney

Think about developing a product without knowing who it's for or what it's supposed to do. How do you know where to start, what functionalities to add, or the overall purpose of the product? Getting clear on these things upfront provides context for development and an overarching objective around which to build goals.

A product vision is not formally part of the scrum process but can be used as a foundation to help product owners create product goals with their customers and stakeholders.

What's a Product Vision Statement?

A product vision statement focuses on the product. Products can be applications, software, goods, or services. They deliver value to the market by solving a problem or fulfilling a need.

A product vision, then, goes on to explain the purpose behind a product, who it's for, what need it satisfies or problem it solves, and what it does. The vision clarifies to the developers why the product is being made and establishes the long-term goals desired.

The product vision statement concisely summarizes the product vision in one or a few sentences, giving the team their primary focus during discovery and development. An effective product vision statement helps provide developers with context and a clear point of view for the future state of the product.

As development progresses, it guides decision-making and inspires innovation by focusing on the purpose of the product and how to improve it throughout its lifecycle. To keep the product vision statement in mind, some teams may create a product vision board to display in a shared workplace area or a digital version they can regularly view.

Is It the Same as a Product Goal?

The following applies to a product vision:

• Always evolving
• A description of the future state of the product or experience
• It may not ever be reached

And product goals are:

• Mid-term to long-term
• Tangible future states of the product or experience
• Targets for the team to plan against

There could be several product goals the team pursues on the path to achieving the vision. The product goals are the concrete objectives on the way to fulfilling the vision (which could ultimately change if conditions require).

There are many ways to write a product vision statement. Some teams simply use an aspirational phrase to express their vision:

By creating safer roads in our cities, we believe more children who travel to school as pedestrians will arrive safely every day could be the vision statement of a pedestrian safety organization or a city planning department.

By providing one-of-a-kind outfit recommendations on our personalized app, we believe we can help Americans of all body types feel more confident in their daily lives could be the vision statement for an app and website that sells monthly subscriptions for curated clothing.

Here are a couple templates you can use to write a product vision statement:

• A hypothesis statement: We believe that by doing X for customer Y, we'll create outcome Z
• For customer [persona V], product [name W], will help them [job to be done or primary goal X], (optionally [in context or with differentiator Y]), so that [impact Z]

Other optional criteria would be adding metrics for measuring progress. It doesn't have to be part of the statement itself but including metrics in the details could help teams understand how stakeholders or product owners will be measuring progress.

Product vision statements should be concise, capturing the essence of the product's purpose and inspiring the developers' work to meet that vision. In comparison, product goals serve as concrete direction for the scrum team —direction that is consistent with the inspirational vision.

Examples of Good Product Vision Statements

Here are more examples of product vision statements:

Empower teams worldwide to collaborate effortlessly, increase productivity, and deliver exceptional results by providing the most intuitive and comprehensive project management platform available, making work both efficient and enjoyable.

Our application will allow users to get started for free but have increased features in payment tiers based on the number of users. We will adapt to user feedback to become the market's most widely used project management app.

Another example:

Our e-learning platform transforms the way the world learns by providing a personalized, accessible, and engaging learning experience for learners of all ages and backgrounds, empowering them to unlock their full potential and shape a brighter future. 

Generate revenue through tuition for classes while providing students with quality programs and education. The long-term goal is to have a broad scope of courses on all subjects, offer hands-on, in-person training if needed, and help graduates find work.

Examples of Bad Product Vision Statements

Our product is new software that helps people with various tasks and other to-do items.

This product vision statement is problematic for several reasons:

• Lack of Specificity: It needs more specificity and clarity, failing to clearly define the product and what it does.
• Vagueness: It uses vague language like "various tasks" which provides no concrete information about the product's purpose or value.
• Lack of Inspiration: It needs to have the inspirational and motivating qualities a good product vision should possess.
• Ambiguity: It doesn't mention the target audience, the problem it solves, or the unique value it offers.
• Directionless: It provides no guidance or direction for the product development team or stakeholders.

A good product vision statement should be clear, inspiring, and purpose-driven, whereas this example falls short. It's essential for a product vision to guide and inspire the team and stakeholders to work toward a common goal.

Here's another example of a bad one:

We want to make some money by selling a product online.

• Lack of Purpose: It lacks a clear sense of purpose or a vision beyond making money, a common goal for any business, but should not be the sole focus of a product vision statement.
• No Value Proposition: It doesn't mention what the product is or how it benefits customers, making it unclear why anyone would want to buy it.
• Lack of Inspiration: It doesn't inspire or motivate the team or stakeholders with a compelling vision for the product.
• Short-Term Focus: The statement focuses on immediate financial gain rather than long-term product success and customer value.
• Lack of Direction: It provides no strategic direction or guidance for developing and marketing the product.

A strong product vision statement should go beyond financial objectives and clearly articulate the product's purpose, value, and broader impact on customers and the market. It should inspire and guide the team toward a common goal beyond simply making money.

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4 types of product assumptions and how to test them

Understanding, identifying, and testing product assumptions is a cornerstone of product development.

To some extent, it’s the primary responsibility of a product manager to handle assumptions well to drive product outcomes.

Let’s dive deep into what assumptions are, why they are critical, the common types of assumptions, and, most importantly, how to test them.

What are product assumptions?

Product assumptions are preconceived beliefs or hypotheses that product managers establish during the product development cycle, providing an initial framework for decision-making. These assumptions, which can involve features, user behaviors, market trends, or technical feasibility, are integral to the iterative process of product creation and validation.

Assumptions guide the prototyping, testing, and adjustment stages, allowing the team to refine and improve the product in response to real-world feedback.

Leveraging product assumptions effectively is a cornerstone of risk management in product development because it aids in reducing uncertainty, saving resources, and accelerating time to market. Remember, a key part of a product manager’s role is to continuously challenge and validate product assumptions to ensure the product remains aligned with consumer needs and market dynamics.

Whatever you do, you don’t do it without a reason. For example, if you are building a retention-focused feature to drive revenue, you automatically assume that the feature will improve your revenue metrics and that it’ll deliver enough value for users that they’ll retain better.

In short, assumptions are all the beliefs you have when pursuing a particular idea, whether validated or not.

Why are assumptions important for product managers?

You can’t overemphasize the importance of assumptions in product management. For PMs, they are the building block of everything we do.

Ultimately, our job is to drive product outcomes by pursuing various initiatives we believe will contribute to the outcome. We decide which initiatives to pursue based on the beliefs we hold:

If our assumptions are correct, the initiative is a success, and there should be a tangible impact on the outcome. If they turn out wrong, we might fail to drive the impact we hope to see. We may even do more harm than good.

Because one initiative is often based on numerous assumptions, and various solutions can share the same assumptions, testing individual hypotheses is faster and cheaper than testing whole initiatives:

Moreover, testing an initiative with multiple unvalidated assumptions makes it hard to distinguish which hypotheses contributed to its success and which didn’t. Testing shared assumptions can help us raise confidence in multiple solutions simultaneously.

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In most cases, you’re better off focusing on testing individual assumptions first than jumping straight into solution development.

4 types of product assumptions

There are various types of assumptions. However, as a product manager, there are four important assumptions that you must understand and learn how to test:

• Desirability assumptions
• Viability assumptions
• Feasibility assumptions
• Usability assumptions

1. Desirability assumptions

When you assume solution desirability, you are trying to answer the question, “Do our users want this solution?”

After all, in the vast majority of cases, there’s no reason to pursue an initiative that isn’t interesting for your end-users.

Desirability assumptions include questions such as:

• Does this problem solve a painful enough problem?
• Is the problem we are solving relevant to enough users?
• Is our proposed way of solving the problem optimal?
• Will users understand the value they can get from this solution?

2. Viability assumptions

Viability determines whether the initiative makes sense from a business perspective.

Delivering value for users is great, but to be truly successful, an initiative must also deliver enough ROI for the business to grow and prosper. Of course, you might work for an NGO that doesn’t care about the revenue.

Viability assumptions include questions such as:

• Will we see a positive impact on business metrics?
• Does this initiative fit our current business model?
• Does the solution align with our long-term product strategy?
• Can we expect a satisfactory return on investment?

3. Feasibility assumptions

Even the most desirable and viable solutions are only relevant if they are possible to build, implement, and maintain.

Before committing to any direction, ensure you can deliver the initiative within your current constraints.

You can assess feasibility by answering questions such as:

• Does our current technology stack allow such an implementation?
• Do we have the resources and skillset to proceed with this initiative?
• Do we have means of maintaining the initiative?
• Can we handle the technical complexity of this solution?

4. Usability assumptions

Even after you implement a desirable, viable, and feasible solution, it won’t drive the expected results if users don’t understand how to use it.

The more usable the solution is, the more optimal outcomes it’ll yield.

Focus on answering questions such as:

• Are our users aware that the new solution exists?
• Do they understand what value they can get from it?
• Is it clear how to find and use the solution?
• Is there friction or needless complexity that might prevent users from adopting the solution?

How to use an assumption map

An assumption map is a powerful technique that can help you identify, organize, and prioritize assumptions you make with your initiatives.

Check out our assumption mapping article for more details if that sounds valuable.

For the purpose of this article, I’ll assume you’ve already identified and prioritized your assumptions.

Testing product assumptions

Now let’s take a look at some ways you can test your assumptions. While the best method depends heavily on the type of assumption you are testing, this library should be a solid starting point:

Testing desirability

Testing viability, testing feasibility, testing usability.

There’s no way to test desirability without interacting with your users. Get out of the door, one way or another, and see if the solution is something your users truly want.

Techniques for assessing the desirability of a solution include:

Landing pages

Crowdfunding, alpha and beta testing.

One of the fastest and most insightful desirability validation techniques is to interview your target users .

You don’t want to ask users upfront because doing so produces skewed answers. Instead, you want to understand the user’s problem, how they describe it, and the most significant pain points they have. You can then look at your proposed solution and judge whether it could potentially solve the problems users mentioned.

You can create a product landing page even if you don’t yet have the product. By monitoring the engagement on the site, you can gauge the overall interest in the solution; if users bounce from the site after a few seconds, they are probably not interested.

You can take it a step further and include the option to subscribe to a waitlist. Signing up would be a powerful signal that users are genuinely interested.

If you are building a B2B solution, you can try to actually sell it to potential clients. There are three ways to approach this:

• Mock sales — A sales simulation when you try to sell the solution but don’t commit to an actual sale
• Letter of intent — You ask your potential client to sign a letter of intent to buy the solution once it’s live
• Actual sale — In some cases, you might be able to finalize the sale before the product is even live, with an option to revert the sale if you decide not to pursue the direction after all

If people are willing to pay for the solution before it is even created, the desirability is really high.

Crowdfunding is a presale option for mass B2C consumers. However, it’s viable mostly for brand-new products.

By promoting your idea on sites like Kickstarter, you can not only gauge overall desirability but also capture funding to improve the viability of the idea.

The most powerful yet expensive way of testing desirability is to build a minimal version of the solution. You can then conduct alpha and beta tests to see actual user engagement and gather real-time feedback on the further direction.

Due to the cost, this method is recommended after you have some initial confirmation with other validation techniques.

You can test the viability of assumptions by taking a closer look at the business side of things to evaluate whether the initiative fits well or contradicts with other areas.

Techniques for testing the viability of your product include:

Business model review

Strategy canvas, business case.

The first step in assessing initiative viability is to review your current business model and see how it would fit there:

Does the solution connect well to your current value proposition and distribution channel? Do you have key resources and partners to pull it off? Does it sync well with key activities you are performing?

Ideally, your initiative will not only not disrupt your business model but also contribute to it as a whole.

A viable solution helps you build a competitive advantage in the market. One way to evaluate viability is to map a strategy canvas of your competitive alternatives and judge whether the initiative will help you strengthen your advantage or reduce your weaknesses:

A great solution helps you maintain and expand your competitive edge on the market.

With basic viability tested, it’s worth investing some time to build a robust business case.

Gather all relevant input and try to build well-informed projections:

• How many people can you reach?
• How expensive the solution is going to be?
• What’s the expected long-term revenue gain and maintenance cost?
• What is the anticipated ROI over time?

A strong business case will also help you pitch the idea to key stakeholders and compare the business viability of various initiatives and solutions to choose the most impactful one.

Validating whether a solution is possible to implement usually requires a team of subject matter experts to do a deep dive into potential implementation details. Two common approaches are

Technical research

Proof of concept (poc).

This step includes researching various implementation methods and limitations to determine whether a solution is feasible.

For example, suppose you are considering a range of trial lengths for various user segments in your mobile product. In that case, you might need to review app store policy and limitations to see if it’s allowed out of the box or if any external solution is necessary.

If an external solution is needed, you might investigate whether there’s an SDK supporting that or it requires building from scratch (thus increasing complexity and reducing the viability of the solution).

For more complex initiatives, you might need to develop a proof ofconcept. One could call it a “technical MVP”. It includes building the minimal version of the most uncertain part of the solution and evaluating if it even works. Proof of concept might vary from a few lines of code for simple tests to a fully-fledged development for the most complex initiatives.

Usability is the most straightforward thing to test. You want to put the solution in front of the user to see if they understand how to use it and what potential friction points are.

There are two common ways to do this:

Analytics review

Prototypes are at the forefront of usability testing. Build a simulation of the experience you want to provide, ask the user to finish a specific task, and observe how they interact with the product.

Depending on the level of uncertainty and the investment you want to make, prototypes can vary from quick-and-dirty paper prototypes to fully interactive, no-code solutions.

If you are already at an MVP stage, you have the benefit of having actual data on how the solution is used. Analyze this data closely to evaluate how discoverable the product is, how much time it takes for users to complete specific tasks, and what are the most common dropout moments.

Combining quantitative data review with qualitative insights from prototypes will help you validate most of your usability assumptions.

Every initiative you pursue is based on a set of underlying assumptions — that is, a set of preconceived beliefs we have when deciding which direction to pursue.

Validating these beliefs is a critical part of product management. After all, it’s easier and cheaper to test individual assumptions than to test solutions as a whole.

Make sure you identify your main desirability, viability, feasibility, and usability assumptions and test them before committing to a fully-fledged solution.

I recommend you store the insights from assumptions tests for future reference. Many solutions tend to share similar assumptions, so the insights might help you speed up your validation process in the future.

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Hypothesis in product management is like making an educated guess or assumption about something related to a product, such as what users need or how a new feature might work. It’s a statement that you can test to see if it’s true or not, usually by trying out different ideas and seeing what happens. By testing hypotheses, product managers can figure out what works best for the product and its users, helping to make better decisions about how to improve and develop the product further.

Table of Content

What Is a Hypothesis in Product Management?

How does the product management hypothesis work, how to generate a hypothesis for a product, how to make a hypothesis statement for a product, how to validate hypothesis statements:, the process explained what comes after hypothesis validation, final thoughts on product hypotheses, product management hypothesis example, conclusion: product hypothesis, faqs: product hypothesis.

In product management, a hypothesis is a proposed explanation or assumption about a product, feature, or aspect of the product’s development or performance. It serves as a statement that can be tested, validated, or invalidated through experimentation and data analysis. Hypotheses play a crucial role in guiding product managers’ decision-making processes, informing product development strategies , and prioritizing initiatives. In summary, hypotheses in product management serve as educated guesses or assertions about the relationship between product changes and their impact on user behaviour or business outcomes.

Product management hypotheses work by guiding product managers through a structured process of identifying problems, proposing solutions, and testing assumptions to drive product development and improvement. Here’s how the process typically works:

How does the product management hypothesis work

• Identifying Problems : Product managers start by identifying potential problems or opportunities for improvement within their product. This could involve gathering feedback from users, analyzing data, conducting market research, or observing user behaviour.
• Formulating Hypotheses : Based on the identified problems or opportunities, product managers formulate hypotheses that articulate their assumptions about the causes of these issues and potential solutions. Hypotheses are typically written as clear, testable statements that specify what the expected outcomes will be if the hypothesis is true.
• Designing Experiments : Product managers design experiments or tests to validate or invalidate their hypotheses. This could involve implementing changes to the product, such as introducing new features, modifying existing functionalities, or adjusting user experiences. Experiments may also involve collecting data through surveys, interviews, user testing, or analytics tools.
• Setting Success Metrics : Product managers define success metrics or key performance indicators (KPIs) that will be used to measure the effectiveness of the experiments. These metrics should be aligned with the goals of the hypothesis and provide quantifiable insights into whether the proposed solution is achieving the desired outcomes.
• Executing Experiments : Product managers implement the planned changes or interventions in the product and monitor their impact on the defined success metrics. This could involve conducting A/B tests, where different versions of the product are presented to different groups of users, or running pilot programs to gather feedback from a subset of users.

Generating a hypothesis for a product involves systematically identifying potential problems, proposing solutions, and formulating testable assumptions about how changes to the product could address user needs or improve performance. Here’s a step-by-step process for generating hypotheses:

How to Generate a Hypothesis for a Product

• Start by gaining a deep understanding of your target users and their needs, preferences, and pain points. Conduct user research, including surveys, interviews, usability tests, and behavioral analysis, to gather insights into user behavior and challenges they face when using your product.
• Review qualitative and quantitative data collected from user interactions, analytics tools, customer support inquiries, and feedback channels. Look for patterns, trends, and recurring issues that indicate areas where the product may be falling short or where improvements could be made.
• Clarify the goals and objectives you want to achieve with your product. This could include increasing user engagement, improving retention rates, boosting conversion rates, or enhancing overall user satisfaction. Align your hypotheses with these objectives to ensure they are focused and actionable.
• Brainstorm potential solutions or interventions that could address the identified user needs or pain points. Encourage creativity and divergent thinking within your product team to generate a wide range of ideas. Consider both incremental improvements and more radical changes to the product.
• Evaluate and prioritize the potential solutions based on factors such as feasibility, impact on user experience, alignment with strategic goals, and resource constraints. Focus on solutions that are likely to have the greatest impact on addressing user needs and achieving your objectives.

To make a hypothesis statement for a product, follow these steps:

• Identify the Problem : Begin by identifying a specific problem or opportunity for improvement within your product. This could be based on user feedback, data analysis, market research, or observations of user behavior.
• Define the Proposed Solution : Determine what change or intervention you believe could address the identified problem or opportunity. This could involve introducing a new feature, improving an existing functionality, changing the user experience, or addressing a specific user need.
• Formulate the Hypothesis : Write a clear, specific, and testable statement that articulates your assumption about the relationship between the proposed solution and its expected impact on user behavior or business outcomes. Your hypothesis should follow the structure: If [proposed solution], then [expected outcome].
• Specify Success Metrics : Define the key metrics or performance indicators that will be used to measure the success of your hypothesis. These metrics should be aligned with your objectives and provide quantifiable insights into whether the proposed solution is achieving the desired outcomes.
• Consider Constraints and Assumptions : Take into account any constraints or assumptions that may affect the validity of your hypothesis. This could include technical limitations, resource constraints, dependencies on external factors, or assumptions about user behavior.

Validating hypothesis statements in product management involves testing the proposed solutions or interventions to determine whether they achieve the desired outcomes. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to validate hypothesis statements:

• Design Experiments or Tests : Based on your hypothesis statement, design experiments or tests to evaluate the proposed solution’s effectiveness. Determine the experimental setup, including the control group (no changes) and the experimental group (where the proposed solution is implemented).
• Define Success Metrics : Specify the key metrics or performance indicators that will be used to measure the success of your hypothesis. These metrics should be aligned with your objectives and provide quantifiable insights into whether the proposed solution is achieving the desired outcomes.
• Collect Baseline Data : Before implementing the proposed solution, collect baseline data on the identified metrics from both the control group and the experimental group. This will serve as a reference point for comparison once the experiment is conducted.
• Implement the Proposed Solution : Implement the proposed solution or intervention in the experimental group while keeping the control group unchanged. Ensure that the implementation is consistent with the hypothesis statement and that any necessary changes are properly documented.
• Monitor and Collect Data : Monitor the performance of both the control group and the experimental group during the experiment. Collect data on the defined success metrics, track user behavior, and gather feedback from users to assess the impact of the proposed solution.

After hypothesis validation in product management , the process typically involves several key steps to leverage the findings and insights gained from the validation process. Here’s what comes after hypothesis validation:

• Data Analysis and Interpretation : Once the hypothesis has been validated (or invalidated), product managers analyze the data collected during the experiment to gain deeper insights into user behavior, product performance, and the impact of the proposed solution. This involves interpreting the results in the context of the hypothesis statement and the defined success metrics.
• Documentation of Findings : Document the findings of the hypothesis validation process, including the outcomes of the experiment, key insights gained, and any lessons learned. This documentation serves as a valuable reference for future decision-making and helps ensure that knowledge is shared across the product team and organization.
• Knowledge Sharing and Communication : Communicate the results of the hypothesis validation process to relevant stakeholders, including product team members, leadership, and other key decision-makers. Share insights, lessons learned, and recommendations for future action to ensure alignment and transparency within the organization.
• Iterative Learning and Adaptation : Use the insights gained from hypothesis validation to inform future iterations of the product development process . Apply learnings from the experiment to refine the product strategy, adjust feature priorities, and make data-driven decisions about product improvements.
• Further Experimentation and Testing : Based on the validated hypothesis and the insights gained, identify new areas for experimentation and testing. Continuously test new ideas, features, and hypotheses to drive ongoing product innovation and improvement. This iterative process of experimentation and learning helps product managers stay responsive to user needs and market dynamics.

product hypotheses serve as a cornerstone of the product management process, guiding decision-making, fostering innovation, and driving continuous improvement. Here are some final thoughts on product hypotheses:

• Foundation for Experimentation : Hypotheses provide a structured framework for formulating, testing, and validating assumptions about product changes and their impact on user behavior and business outcomes. By systematically testing hypotheses, product managers can gather valuable insights, mitigate risks, and make data-driven decisions.
• Focus on User-Centricity : Effective hypotheses are rooted in a deep understanding of user needs, preferences, and pain points. By prioritizing user-centric hypotheses, product managers can ensure that product development efforts are aligned with user expectations and deliver meaningful value to users.
• Iterative and Adaptive : The process of hypothesis formulation and validation is iterative and adaptive, allowing product managers to learn from experimentation, refine their assumptions, and iterate on their product strategies over time. This iterative approach enables continuous innovation and improvement in the product.
• Data-Driven Decision Making : Hypothesis validation relies on empirical evidence and data analysis to assess the impact of proposed changes. By leveraging data to validate hypotheses, product managers can make informed decisions, mitigate biases, and prioritize initiatives based on their expected impact on key metrics.
• Collaborative and Transparent : Formulating and validating hypotheses is a collaborative effort that involves input from cross-functional teams, stakeholders, and users. By fostering collaboration and transparency, product managers can leverage diverse perspectives, align stakeholders, and build consensus around product priorities.

Here’s an example of a hypothesis statement in the context of product management:

• Problem: Users are abandoning the onboarding process due to confusion about how to set up their accounts.
• Proposed Solution: Implement a guided onboarding tutorial that walks users through the account setup process step-by-step.
• Hypothesis Statement: If we implement a guided onboarding tutorial that walks users through the account setup process step-by-step, then we will see a decrease in the dropout rate during the onboarding process and an increase in the percentage of users completing account setup.
• Percentage of users who complete the onboarding process
• Time spent on the onboarding tutorial
• Feedback ratings on the effectiveness of the tutorial

Experiment Design:

• Control Group: Users who go through the existing onboarding process without the guided tutorial.
• Experimental Group: Users who go through the onboarding process with the guided tutorial.
• Duration: Run the experiment for two weeks to gather sufficient data.
• Data Collection: Track the number of users who complete the onboarding process, the time spent on the tutorial, and collect feedback ratings from users.

Expected Outcome: We anticipate that users who go through the guided onboarding tutorial will have a higher completion rate and spend more time on the tutorial compared to users who go through the existing onboarding process without guidance.

By testing this hypothesis through an experiment and analyzing the results, product managers can validate whether implementing a guided onboarding tutorial effectively addresses the identified problem and improves the user experience.

In conclusion, hypothesis statements are invaluable tools in the product management process, providing a structured approach to identifying problems, proposing solutions, and validating assumptions. By formulating clear, testable hypotheses, product managers can drive innovation, mitigate risks, and make data-driven decisions that ultimately lead to the development of successful products.

Q. What is the lean product hypothesis?

Lean hypothesis testing is a strategy within agile product development aimed at reducing risk, accelerating the development process, and refining product-market fit through the creation and iterative enhancement of a minimal viable product (MVP).

Q. What is the product value hypothesis?

The value hypothesis centers on the worth of your product to customers and is foundational to achieving product-market fit. This hypothesis is applicable to both individual products and entire companies, serving as a crucial element in determining alignment with market needs.

Q. What is the hypothesis for a minimum viable product?

Hypotheses for minimum viable products are testable assumptions supported by evidence. For instance, one hypothesis to validate could be whether people will be interested in the product at a certain price point; if not, adjusting the price downwards may be necessary.

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The 5 Components of a Good Hypothesis

November 12, 2014 by Teresa Torres

Update: I’ve since revised this hypothesis format. You can find the most current version in this article:

• How to Improve Your Experiment Design (And Build Trust in Your Product Experiments)

“My hypothesis is …”

These words are becoming more common everyday. Product teams are starting to talk like scientists. Are you?

The internet industry is going through a mindset shift. Instead of assuming we have all the right answers, we are starting to acknowledge that building products is hard. We are accepting the reality that our ideas are going to fail more often than they are going to succeed.

Rather than waiting to find out which ideas are which after engineers build them, smart product teams are starting to integrate experimentation into their product discovery process. They are asking themselves, how can we test this idea before we invest in it?

This process starts with formulating a good hypothesis.

These Are Not the Hypotheses You Are Looking For

When we are new to hypothesis testing, we tend to start with hypotheses like these:

• Fixing the hard-to-use comment form will increase user engagement.
• A redesign will improve site usability.
• Reducing prices will make customers happy.

There’s only one problem. These aren’t testable hypotheses. They aren’t specific enough.

A good hypothesis can be clearly refuted or supported by an experiment. – Tweet This

To make sure that your hypotheses can be supported or refuted by an experiment, you will want to include each of these elements:

• the change that you are testing
• what impact we expect the change to have
• who you expect it to impact
• by how much
• after how long

The Change:  This is the change that you are introducing to your product. You are testing a new design, you are adding new copy to a landing page, or you are rolling out a new feature.

Be sure to get specific. Fixing a hard-to-use comment form is not specific enough. How will you fix it? Some solutions might work. Others might not. Each is a hypothesis in its own right.

Design changes can be particularly challenging. Your hypothesis should cover a specific design not the idea of a redesign.

In other words, use this:

• This specific design will increase conversions.
• Redesigning the landing page will increase conversions.

The former can be supported or refuted by an experiment. The latter can encompass dozens of design solutions, where some might work and others might not.

The Expected Impact:  The expected impact should clearly define what you expect to see as a result of making the change.

How will you know if your change is successful? Will it reduce response times, increase conversions, or grow your audience?

The expected impact needs to be specific and measurable. – Tweet This

You might hypothesize that your new design will increase usability. This isn’t specific enough.

You need to define how you will measure an increase in usability. Will it reduce the time to complete some action? Will it increase customer satisfaction? Will it reduce bounce rates?

There are dozens of ways that you might measure an increase in usability. In order for this to be a testable hypothesis, you need to define which metric you expect to be affected by this change.

Who Will Be Impacted: The third component of a good hypothesis is who will be impacted by this change. Too often, we assume everyone. But this is rarely the case.

I was recently working with a product manager who was testing a sign up form popup upon exiting a page.

I’m sure you’ve seen these before. You are reading a blog post and just as you are about to navigate away, you get a popup that asks, “Would you like to subscribe to our newsletter?”

She A/B tested this change by showing it to half of her population, leaving the rest as her control group. But there was a problem.

Some of her visitors were already subscribers. They don’t need to subscribe again. For this population, the answer to this popup will always be no.

Rather than testing with her whole population, she should be testing with just the people who are not currently subscribers.

This isn’t easy to do. And it might not sound like it’s worth the effort, but it’s the only way to get good results.

Suppose she has 100 visitors. Fifty see the popup and fifty don’t. If 45 of the people who see the popup are already subscribers and as a result they all say no, and of the five remaining visitors only 1 says yes, it’s going to look like her conversion rate is 1 out of 50, or 2%. However, if she limits her test to just the people who haven’t subscribed, her conversion rate is 1 out of 5, or 20%. This is a huge difference.

Who you test with is often the most important factor for getting clean results. – Tweet This

By how much: The fourth component builds on the expected impact. You need to define how much of an impact you expect your change to have.

For example, if you are hypothesizing that your change will increase conversion rates, then you need to estimate by how much, as in the change will increase conversion rate from x% to y%, where x is your current conversion rate and y is your expected conversion rate after making the change.

This can be hard to do and is often a guess. However, you still want to do it. It serves two purposes.

First, it helps you draw a line in the sand. This number should determine in black and white terms whether or not your hypothesis passes or fails and should dictate how you act on the results.

Suppose you hypothesize that the change will improve conversion rates by 10%, then if your change results in a 9% increase, your hypothesis fails.

This might seem extreme, but it’s a critical step in making sure that you don’t succumb to your own biases down the road.

It’s very easy after the fact to determine that 9% is good enough. Or that 2% is good enough. Or that -2% is okay, because you like the change. Without a line in the sand, you are setting yourself up to ignore your data.

The second reason why you need to define by how much is so that you can calculate for how long to run your test.

After how long:  Too many teams run their tests for an arbitrary amount of time or stop the results when one version is winning.

This is a problem. It opens you up to false positives and releasing changes that don’t actually have an impact.

If you hypothesize the expected impact ahead of time than you can use a duration calculator to determine for how long to run the test.

Finally, you want to add the duration of the test to your hypothesis. This will help to ensure that everyone knows that your results aren’t valid until the duration has passed.

If your traffic is sporadic, “how long” doesn’t have to be defined in time. It can also be defined in page views or sign ups or after a specific number of any event.

Putting It All Together

Use the following examples as templates for your own hypotheses:

• Design x [the change] will increase conversions [the impact] for search campaign traffic [the who] by 10% [the how much] after 7 days [the how long].
• Reducing the sign up steps from 3 to 1 will increase signs up by 25% for new visitors after 1,000 visits to the sign up page.
• This subject line will increase open rates for daily digest subscribers by 15% after 3 days.

After you write a hypothesis, break it down into its five components to make sure that you haven’t forgotten anything.

• Change: this subject line
• Impact: will increase open rates
• Who: for daily digest subscribers
• By how much: by 15%
• After how long: After 3 days

And then ask yourself:

• Is your expected impact specific and measurable?
• Can you clearly explain why the change will drive the expected impact?
• Are you testing with the right population?
• Did you estimate your how much based on a baseline and / or comparable changes? (more on this in a future post)
• Did you calculate the duration using a duration calculator?

It’s easy to give lip service to experimentation and hypothesis testing. But if you want to get the most out of your efforts, make sure you are starting with a good hypothesis.

Did you learn something new reading this article? Keep learning. Subscribe to the Product Talk mailing list to get the next article in this series delivered to your inbox.

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May 21, 2017 at 2:11 am

Interesting article, I am thinking about making forming a hypothesis around my product, if certain customers will find a proposed value useful. Can you kindly let me know if I’m on the right track.

“Certain customer segment (AAA) will find value in feature (XXX), to tackle their pain point ”

Change: using a feature (XXX)/ product Impact: will reduce monetary costs/ help solve a problem Who: for certain customers segment (AAA) By how much: by 5% After how long: 10 days

April 4, 2020 at 12:33 pm

Hi! Could you throw a little light on this: “Suppose you hypothesize that the change will improve conversion rates by 10%, then if your change results in a 9% increase, your hypothesis fails.”

I understood the rationale behind having a number x (10% in this case) associated with “by how much”, but could you explain with an example of how to ballpark a figure like this?

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Hypothesis Driven Product Management

• Post author By admin
• Post date September 23, 2020
• No Comments on Hypothesis Driven Product Management

What is Lean Hypothesis Testing?

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” – Richard P. Feynman

Lean hypothesis testing is an approach to agile product development that’s designed to minimize risk, increase the speed of development, and hone business outcomes by building and iterating on a minimum viable product (MVP).

The minimum viable product is a concept famously championed by Eric Ries as part of the lean startup methodology. At its core, the concept of the MVP is about creating a cycle of learning. Rather than devoting long development timelines to building a fully polished end product, teams working through lean product development build, in short, iterative cycles. Each cycle is devoted to shipping an MVP, defined as a product that’s built with the least amount of work possible for the purpose of testing and validating that product with users.

In lean hypothesis testing, the MVP itself can be framed as a hypothesis. A well-designed hypothesis breaks down an issue into a  problem, solution, and result.

When defining a good hypothesis, start with a meaningful problem: an issue or pain-point that you’d like to solve for your users. Teams often use multiple qualitative and quantitative sources to the scope and describe this problem.

How do you get started?

Two core practices underlie lean:

• Use of the scientific method and
• Use of small batches. Science has brought us many wonderful things.

I personally prefer to expand the Build-Measure-Learn loop into the classic view of the scientific method because I find it’s more robust. You can see that process to the right, and we’ll step through the components in the balance of this section.

The use of small batches is critical. It gives you more shots at a successful outcome, particularly valuable when you’re in a high risk, high uncertainty environment.

A great example from Eric Ries’ book is the envelope folding experiment: If you had to stuff 100 envelopes with letters, how would you do it? Would you fold all the sheets of paper and then stuff the envelopes? Or would you fold one sheet of paper, stuff one envelope? It turns out that doing them one by one is vastly more efficient, and that’s just on an  operational  basis. If you don’t actually know if the envelopes will fit or whether anyone wants them (more analogous to a startup), you’re obviously much better off with the one-by-one approach.

So, how do you do it? In 6 simple (in principle) steps :

• Start with a strong idea , one where you’ve gone out a done customer strong discovery which is packaged into testable personas and problem scenarios. If you’re familiar with design thinking, it’s very much about doing good work in this area.
• Structure your idea(s)  in a testable format (as hypotheses).
• Figure out how you’ll prove or disprove  these hypotheses with a minimum of time and effort. 
• Get focused on testing your hypotheses  and collecting whatever metrics you’ll use to make a conclusion.
• Conclude and decide ; did you prove out this idea and is it time to throw more resources at it? Or do you need to reformulate and re-test?
• Pivot or persevere ; If you’re pivoting and revising, the key is to make sure you have a strong foundation in customer discovery so you can pivot in a smart way based on your understanding of the customer/user.

By using a hypothesis-driven development process you:

• Articulate your thinking
• Provide others with an understanding of your thinking
• Create a framework to test your designs against
• Develop a standard way of documenting your work
• Make better stuff

Free Template: Lean Hypothesis template

Eric Ries: Test & experiment, turn your feeling into a hypothesis

5 case studies on experimentation :.

• Adobe takes a customer-centric to innovating Photoshop
• Test Paper prototypes to save time and money: the Mozilla case study
• Walmart.ca increases on-site conversions by 13%
• Icons8 web app. Redesign based on usability testing.
• Experiments at Airbnb
• Tags Hypothesis Driven

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What Is Product Management Hypothesis?

• 1.  What Is Product Management?
• 2.  What Is a Software Product?
• 3.  Software Product Manager
• 4.  Product Owner
• 5.  Product Management Life Cycle
• 6.  Product Management Roadmap
• 7.  Product Management Software and Tools
• 8.  Product Backlog
• 9.  Product Management OKRs
• 10.  Product Requirements Documents
• 11.  Product Management Metrics and KPIs Explained
• 12.  Product Analytics
• 13.  Comprehensive Guide to Lean Product Management
• 14.  Best Product Management Resources for Product Managers
• 15.  Practical Product Management Templates
• 16.  FAQ
• 17.  Glossary of Product Management Terms

The path to creating a great product can be riddled with unknowns.

To create a successful product that delivers value to customers, product teams grapple with many questions such as:

• Who is our ideal customer?
• What is the most important product feature to build?
• Will customers like a specific feature?

Using a scientific process for product management can help funnel these assumptions into actionable and specific hypotheses. Then, teams can validate their ideas and make the product more valuable for the end-user.

In this article, we’ll learn more about the product management hypothesis and how it can help create successful products consistently.

Product management hypothesis definition

Product management hypothesis is a scientific process that guides teams to test different product ideas and evaluate their merit. It helps them prioritize their finite energy, time, development resources, and budget.

To create hypotheses , product teams can be inspired by multiple sources, including:

• Observations and events happening around them
• Personal opinions of team members
• Earlier experiences of building and launching a different product
• An evaluation and assessment that leads to the identification of unique patterns in data

The most creative ideas can come when teams collaborate. When ideas are identified and expanded, they become hypotheses.

How does the product management hypothesis work?

A method has as many variations as its users. The product management hypothesis has evolved over the years, but here is a brief outline of how it works.

• Identify an idea, assumption, or observation.
• Question the idea or observation to learn more about it.
• Create an entire hypothesis and explain the idea, observation, or assumption.
• Outline a prediction about the hypothesis.
• Test the prediction.
• Review testing results to iterate and create new hypotheses

Product management hypothesis checklist

When time is limited, teams cannot spend too long creating a hypothesis.

That’s why having a well-planned product management checklist can help in identifying good hypotheses quickly. A good hypothesis is an idea or assumption that:

• Is believed to be true, but whose merit needs to be assessed
• Can be tested in many ways
• Is expected to occur in the near future
• Can be true or false
• Applies to the ideal end-users of the product
• Is measurable and identifiable

Product management hypothesis example

Here’s a simple template to outline your product management hypothesis:

• The core idea, assumption, or observation 
• The potential impact this idea will have
• Who will this idea impact the most?
• What will be the estimated volume and nature of the impact?
• When will the idea and its impact occur? 

Here’s an example of a product management hypothesis:

• Idea: We want to redesign the web user interface for a SaaS product to increase conversions
• Potential impact: This redesign targets to increase conversions for new users 
• The audience of impact: Showcase the redesign only to new users to understand the impact on conversions (there’s no point in showing this to existing users since the goal here is new user conversions)
• Impact volume: The targeted volume of the redesign-led conversions will be 35%
• Time period: The redesign testing would take three weeks, starting from August 15

Stop guessing which feature or product to prioritize and build. Use the product management hypothesis as a guide to finding your next successful product or feature ideas. 

Get a free Wrike trial to create more products that deliver business impact and delight your customers.

Further reading

How to Create a Product Roadmap

Product Backlog

Product Owner

Product Life Cycle

• Product Management Strategy
• Defining Software Product Strategy
• Product Management Launch Plan
• Product Management Goals
• Product Roadmap

Product Requirements

• Defining Product Specifications
• Writing Software Requirements
• Product Design Requirement Document

Product Management Team And Roles

• Product Management Hierarchy
• Product Management Team and Roles
• Role of a Product Management Lead
• Role of a Product Management Specialist
• Product Manager vs Software Engineer
• Technical Product Manager vs Product Manager
• How to Become a Product Owner
• Project Manager vs Project Owner
• Importance of The Product Owner

Product Management Software & Tools

• Product Management Dashboard
• Product Management Maturity Model
• Product Management Software
• Product Management Workflow

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Startseite » Newsroom » Blog » Product development through hypotheses: formulating hypotheses

Product development through hypotheses: formulating hypotheses

16. February 2018

Product development is confronted with the constant challenge of supplying the customer with a product that exactly meets his needs. In our new blog series, etventure’s product managers provide an insight into their work and approach. The focus is on hypothesis-driven product development. In the first part of the series, we show why and how to define a verifiable hypothesis as the starting point for an experiment.

For the development of new products, features and services as well as the development of start-ups, we at etventure rely on a hypothesis-driven method that is strongly oriented towards the “Lean Startup” 1  philosophy. Having already revealed our remedy for successful product development last week, we now want to take a closer look at the first step of an experiment – the formulation of the hypothesis.

“Done is better than perfect.” – Sheryl Sandberg

Where do hypotheses come from?

Scientists observe nature and ask many questions that lead to hypotheses. Product teams can also be inspired by observations, personal opinions, previous experiences or the discovery of patterns and outliers in data. These observations are often associated with a number of problems and open questions.

• Who is our target group?
• Why does X do this and not that?
• How can person X be motivated to take action Y?
• How can we encourage potential users to sign up for our service?

First of all, it is important that the team meets for brainstorming and becomes creative. Subsequently, those ideas are selected that are “true” from the team’s point of view and are therefore referred to as hypotheses.

What makes a good hypothesis?

Unlike science, we cannot afford to spend too much time on a hypothesis. Nevertheless, one of the key qualifications of every product developer is to recognize a well-formulated hypothesis. The following checklist serves as a basis for this:

A good hypothesis…

• is something we believe to be true, but we don’t know for sure yet
• is a prediction we expect to arrive
• can be easily tested
• may be true or false
• includes the target group
• is clear and measurable

Assumption  ≠ Fact

An assumption may be true, but it may also be false. A fact is always true and can be proven by evidence. Therefore, an assumption always offers an opportunity to learn something. If we already have strong evidence of what we believe in, we don’t need to test it again – there is nothing new to learn. However, we never accept anything as a fact until it has been validated. Awareness of this difference is essential for our product decisions. That’s why we keep asking ourselves questions: Do we have proof of our assumptions, are they facts, or does it end with assumption? In other words: Is it objectively measurable?

Human behaviour is often “predictably irrational”. 2 This is because our brain uses shortcuts when processing information to save time and energy. 3 This is also true in product development: We often tend to ignore evidence that our assumption might be wrong. Instead, we feel confirmed in existing beliefs. The good news is that these distortions are consistent and well known, so we can design systems to correct them. In order to avoid misinterpretations of the test results, it helps, for example, to make the following prediction: What would happen if my assumption was confirmed?

In order for hypotheses to be validated, it must be possible to test them in at least one, but preferably in different scenarios. Since both temporal and monetary resources are usually very limited, hypotheses must always be testable as easy as possible and with justifiable effort.

Testability and falsification

Learning means finding answers to questions. In product development, we want to know whether our assumption is true or not. When testing our ideas, we have to assume that both could happen. What is important is that both results are correct, both mean progress. This concept, is derived from science 4 and helps to avoid an always applicable hypothesis such as “Tomorrow it will either rain or not”.

Target group

Product development should mainly focus on the customer’s needs. Therefore, the target group must be included in the formulation of the hypothesis. This prevents distortion and makes the hypotheses more specific. During development, hypotheses can be refined or the target audience can be adapted.

Clarity and measurability

And last but not least, a hypothesis must always be clear and measurable. Complex hypotheses are not uncommon in science, but in practice it must be immediately clear what is at stake. Product developers should be able to explain their hypotheses within 30 seconds to someone who has never heard of the subject.

Why formulate hypotheses?

Product teams benefit in many ways if they take the time to formulate a hypothesis.

• Impartial decisions: Hypotheses reduce the influence of prejudices on our decision-making.
• Team orientation: Similar to a common vision, a hypothesis strengthens team thinking and prevents conflicts in the experimental phase.
• Focus: Testing without hypothesis is like sailing without a goal. A hypothesis helps to focus and control the experimental design.

How can good hypotheses be formulated?

Various blogs and articles provide a series of templates that help to formulate hypotheses quickly and easily. Most of them differ only slightly from each other. Product teams can freely decide which format they like – as long as the final hypothesis meets the above criteria. We have put together a selection of the most important templates:

• We believe that [this ability] will lead to [this result]. We will know that we have succeeded when [we see a measurable sign].
• I believe that [target group] will [execute this repeatable action/use this solution], which for [this reason] will lead to [an expected measurable result].
• If [cause], then [effect], because [reason].
• If [I do], then [thing] will happen.
• We believe that with [activity] for [these people] [this result / this effect] will happen.

The following hypotheses have actually been used by us in the past weeks and months. During the test phase some of them could be validated, others were rejected.

• After 1,000 visits to the registration page, the reduction of registration steps from 3 to 1 increases the registration rate for new visitors by 25%.
• This subject line increases the opening rates for newsletter subscribers by 15% after 3 days.
• If we offer online training to our customers, the number of training sessions will increase by 35% within the next 2 weeks.
• We believe that the sale of a machine-optimized packaging material to our customers will lead to a higher demand for our packaging material. We will know that we have been successful if we have sold 50% more packaging material within the next 4 weeks.

How to turn hypotheses into experiments?

Formulating good hypotheses is essential for successful product development. And yet it is only the first step in a multi-step development and testing process. In our next article you will learn how hypotheses become experiments.

Further links:

1  Eric Ries: The Lean Startup

2  Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions

3  Cognitive Bias Cheat Sheet

4  Karl Popper

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Value Hypothesis 101: A Product Manager's Guide

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Humans make assumptions every day—it’s our brain’s way of making sense of the world around us, but assumptions are only valuable if they're verifiable . That’s where a value hypothesis comes in as your starting point.

A good hypothesis goes a step beyond an assumption. It’s a verifiable and validated guess based on the value your product brings to your real-life customers. When you verify your hypothesis, you confirm that the product has real-world value, thus you have a higher chance of product success. 

What Is a Verifiable Value Hypothesis?

A value hypothesis is an educated guess about the value proposition of your product. When you verify your hypothesis , you're using evidence to prove that your assumption is correct. A hypothesis is verifiable if it does not prove false through experimentation or is shown to have rational justification through data, experiments, observation, or tests. 

The most significant benefit of verifying a hypothesis is that it helps you avoid product failure and helps you build your product to your customers’ (and potential customers’) needs. 

Verifying your assumptions is all about collecting data. Without data obtained through experiments, observations, or tests, your hypothesis is unverifiable, and you can’t be sure there will be a market need for your product. 

A Verifiable Value Hypothesis Minimizes Risk and Saves Money

When you verify your hypothesis, you’re less likely to release a product that doesn’t meet customer expectations—a waste of your company’s resources. Harvard Business School explains that verifying a business hypothesis “...allows an organization to verify its analysis is correct before committing resources to implement a broader strategy.” 

If you verify your hypothesis upfront, you’ll lower risk and have time to work out product issues. 

UserVoice Validation makes product validation accessible to everyone. Consider using its research feature to speed up your hypothesis verification process. 

Value Hypotheses vs. Growth Hypotheses 

Your value hypothesis focuses on the value of your product to customers. This type of hypothesis can apply to a product or company and is a building block of product-market fit . 

A growth hypothesis is a guess at how your business idea may develop in the long term based on how potential customers may find your product. It’s meant for estimating business model growth rather than individual products. 

Because your value hypothesis is really the foundation for your growth hypothesis, you should focus on value hypothesis tests first and complete growth hypothesis tests to estimate business growth as a whole once you have a viable product.

4 Tips to Create and Test a Verifiable Value Hypothesis

A verifiable hypothesis needs to be based on a logical structure, customer feedback data , and objective safeguards like creating a minimum viable product. Validating your value significantly reduces risk . You can prevent wasting money, time, and resources by verifying your hypothesis in early-stage development. 

A good value hypothesis utilizes a framework (like the template below), data, and checks/balances to avoid bias. 

1. Use a Template to Structure Your Value Hypothesis 

By using a template structure, you can create an educated guess that includes the most important elements of a hypothesis—the who, what, where, when, and why. If you don’t structure your hypothesis correctly, you may only end up with a flimsy or leap-of-faith assumption that you can’t verify. 

A true hypothesis uses a few guesses about your product and organizes them so that you can verify or falsify your assumptions. Using a template to structure your hypothesis can ensure that you’re not missing the specifics.

You can’t just throw a hypothesis together and think it will answer the question of whether your product is valuable or not. If you do, you could end up with faulty data informed by bias , a skewed significance level from polling the wrong people, or only a vague idea of what your customer would actually pay for your product. 

A template will help keep your hypothesis on track by standardizing the structure of the hypothesis so that each new hypothesis always includes the specifics of your client personas, the cost of your product, and client or customer pain points. 

A value hypothesis template might look like: 

[Client] will spend [cost] to purchase and use our [title of product/service] to solve their [specific problem] OR help them overcome [specific obstacle]. 

An example of your hypothesis might look like: 

B2B startups will spend $500/mo to purchase our resource planning software to solve resource over-allocation and employee burnout.

By organizing your ideas and the important elements (who, what, where, when, and why), you can come up with a hypothesis that actually answers the question of whether your product is useful and valuable to your ideal customer. 

2. Turn Customer Feedback into Data to Support Your Hypothesis  

Once you have your hypothesis, it’s time to figure out whether it’s true—or, more accurately, prove that it’s valid. Since a hypothesis is never considered “100% proven,” it’s referred to as either valid or invalid based on the information you discover in your experiments or tests. Additionally, your results could lead to an alternative hypothesis, which is helpful in refining your core idea.

To support value hypothesis testing, you need data. To do that, you'll want to collect customer feedback . A customer feedback management tool can also make it easier for your team to access the feedback and create strategies to implement or improve customer concerns. 

If you find that potential clients are not expressing pain points that could be solved with your product or you’re not seeing an interest in the features you hope to add, you can adjust your hypothesis and absorb a lower risk. Because you didn’t invest a lot of time and money into creating the product yet, you should have more resources to put toward the product once you work out the kinks. 

On the other hand, if you find that customers are requesting features your product offers or pain points your product could solve, then you can move forward with product development, confident that your future customers will value (and spend money on) the product you’re creating. 

A customer feedback management tool like UserVoice can empower you to challenge assumptions from your colleagues (often based on anecdotal information) which find their way into team decision making . Having data to reevaluate an assumption helps with prioritization, and it confirms that you’re focusing on the right things as an organization.

3. Validate Your Product 

Since you have a clear idea of who your ideal customer is at this point and have verified their need for your product, it’s time to validate your product and decide if it’s better than your competitors’. 

At this point, simply asking your customers if they would buy your product (or spend more on your product) instead of a competitor’s isn’t enough confirmation that you should move forward, and customers may be biased or reluctant to provide critical feedback. 

Instead, create a minimum viable product (MVP). An MVP is a working, bare-bones version of the product that you can test out without risking your whole budget. Hypothesis testing with an MVP simulates the product experience for customers and, based on their actions and usage, validates that the full product will generate revenue and be successful.  

If you take the steps to first verify and then validate your hypothesis using data, your product is more likely to do well. Your focus will be on the aspect that matters most—whether your customer actually wants and would invest money in purchasing the product.

4. Use Safeguards to Remain Objective 

One of the pitfalls of believing in your product and attempting to validate it is that you’re subject to confirmation bias . Because you want your product to succeed, you may pay more attention to the answers in the collected data that affirm the value of your product and gloss over the information that may lead you to conclude that your hypothesis is actually false. Confirmation bias could easily cloud your vision or skew your metrics without you even realizing it. 

Since it’s hard to know when you’re engaging in confirmation bias, it’s good to have safeguards in place to keep you in check and aligned with the purpose of objectively evaluating your value hypothesis. 

Safeguards include sharing your findings with third-party experts or simply putting yourself in the customer’s shoes.

Third-party experts are the business version of seeking a peer review. External parties don’t stand to benefit from the outcome of your verification and validation process, so your work is verified and validated objectively. You gain the benefit of knowing whether your hypothesis is valid in the eyes of the people who aren’t stakeholders without the risk of confirmation bias. 

In addition to seeking out objective minds, look into potential counter-arguments , such as customer objections (explicit or imagined). What might your customer think about investing the time to learn how to use your product? Will they think the value is commensurate with the monetary cost of the product? 

When running an experiment on validating your hypothesis, it’s important not to elevate the importance of your beliefs over the objective data you collect. While it can be exciting to push for the validity of your idea, it can lead to false assumptions and the permission of weak evidence. 

Validation Is the Key to Product Success

With your new value hypothesis in hand, you can confidently move forward, knowing that there’s a true need, desire, and market for your product.

Because you’ve verified and validated your guesses, there’s less of a chance that you’re wrong about the value of your product, and there are fewer financial and resource risks for your company. With this strong foundation and the new information you’ve uncovered about your customers, you can add even more value to your product or use it to make more products that fit the market and user needs. 

If you think customer feedback management software would be useful in your hypothesis validation process, consider opting into our free trial to see how UserVoice can help.

Heather Tipton

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How to Write the Product Backlog Item as Hypothesis

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Hello awesome people. It's me again with a new learning from within a Scrum Team. The Development Team I was working with around 3 months ago challenged the Product Owner about the User Story she brought into the Sprint Planning. As a Scrum Master facilitating the Sprint Planning, I listened closely to the Development Team's concern. And when you listen, you will learn from the team. The Development Team felt the Sprint was like a feature factory because the Product Owner does not tie the user story with goals or purpose and value driven metrics as success indicator.

Scrum does not require the team to write their Product Backlog items as User Story. User Story is an option but if the team feels there is a better option they can come up with and own, they should go with that option. After a long discussion, we come up with a better way to write the Product Backlog item that can turn the Sprint to be more purposeful and metric driven as shown below here. This is nothing new as we took the idea of Hypothesis driven development from the Lean startup community.

After several Sprints, the Development Team does not feel the Sprint as a feature factory but rather an engine to validate the business and the Scrum Team's assumption. They feel the Sprint is more purposeful as there is a value driven metric and consumer outcome as the success indicator. They have more ownership and better engagement with the Product Owner too.

Here is the video that explains the Hypothesis format:

You can download this template from: http://www.agilitypath.com.au/tools

I hope this Hypothesis template can help you change the nature of your Sprint and the energy within your Scrum team which will result in awesome products. Let me know how it works out for your team by leaving a comment below.

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CDRH Issues 2024 Safety and Innovation Reports

Reports highlight CDRH actions to advance medical device safety and innovation and build on these efforts this year.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 17, 2024

The following is attributed to Jeff Shuren, M.D., J.D., director of the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH)

Today, CDRH is issuing two companion reports that detail the Center's commitment to further advance our core pillars of safety and innovation. The CDRH 2024 Safety Report is an update to our 2018 Medical Device Safety Action Plan and features steps we have taken in recent years to assure the safety of medical devices keeps pace with the evolving technology. The CDRH 2024 Innovation Report highlights our work to advance innovation and the progress we have made to make the U.S. market more attractive to top device developers.

As we have long stated, safety and innovation are not polar opposites, but rather two sides of the same coin. Our focus on safety and innovation stems from our vision to protect and promote the public health by assuring that medical devices on the U.S. market are high-quality, safe and effective, and that patients and providers have timely and continued access to these devices.

Since 2009, CDRH has focused our efforts on advancing the development of safer, more effective medical devices that provide a significant benefit to the public health. As such, we enhanced our clinical trial and premarket review programs, including the 510(k) and De Novo pathways, and created new programs like the Breakthrough Devices Program , the Safety and Performance Based Pathway and the Safer Technologies Program to help reduce barriers for innovators. As a result of these actions and other past and ongoing efforts, the number of innovative medical devices authorized annually in the U.S. has increased five-fold since 2009.

In parallel, we took significant actions to improve device safety and enhanced our ability to identify and address new safety signals. We achieved an ambitious set of goals outlined in our 2018 Medical Device Safety Action Plan to help ensure patient safety throughout the Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC) of a medical device. We made improvements and updates to our medical device reporting programs, including updating the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database, vastly improved our recalls program, and took steps to ensure the timely communication and resolution of new or known safety issues.

And throughout, we partnered with patients and incorporated their voices into our work, including establishing our Patient Science and Engagement Program, because at the end of the day, improving the health and the quality of life of people is at the core of our public health mission.

We are proud of the progress we've made to advance innovation and improve the safety of medical devices, and we continue to build on these efforts, as resources and additional capabilities permit. One of the challenges we face, though, is the sheer volume of products and producers. Today there about 257,000 different types of medical devices on the U.S. market, made by approximately 22,000 manufacturing facilities worldwide, and CDRH authorizes roughly a dozen new or modified devices every business day. Despite that, the number of new or increased known safety issues involve only a small fraction of technologies and many can be addressed without any changes to the device itself. However, the impact to people can be significant, which is why we need to continuously take steps to advance both safety and innovation.

This year, we will take additional actions to help further ensure innovative, high-quality, safe, and effective devices are developed and marketed to U.S. patients. As further detailed in the 2024 Innovation Report, three actions we plan to take this year include: reimagining our premarket review program, expanding our footprint in geographical innovation centers, and launching a new home as a health care hub to extend first-class care into the home. Additionally, as detailed in the 2024 Safety Report, three actions we plan to take this year include: expanding a program to assist companies improve their device quality efforts, strengthening active surveillance, and enhancing the medical device recall process.

Through these new actions and the work detailed in the 2024 Safety and Innovation reports, CDRH remains committed to furthering our mission to protect and promote the public health and ensure our organization is well-positioned to meet the needs of all people and changes in the medical device ecosystem.

Additional Resources:

• 2024 Innovation Report
• 2024 Safety Report
• 2018 Medical Device Safety Action Plan

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